Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
AU · Why this verdict
Why AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling combination of exceptional profitability, wide moat characteristics, and steep growth alongside an attractive forward multiple — but a recent gap-up has compressed near-term asymmetry to below the minimum entry threshold, and three prior quarterly misses create uncertainty about whether earnings delivery has durably improved.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown roughly 65% year over year, and growth scores the maximum across both revenue and earnings dimensions — a pace of expansion that the current forward P/E of 8.8x and near-zero PEG ratio do not appear to price in. Growth | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| Counter65% revenue growth driven by commodity price expansion is inherently cycle-dependent; the three prior quarterly earnings misses suggest the company has struggled to translate revenue growth into predictable earnings delivery. | ||
At spot prices, the risk/reward of roughly 1-to-1 falls short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 threshold — with roughly 14% upside to the analyst target and comparable downside — making the current entry point unattractive despite the strong fundamental profile. Warnings | A pullback toward the entry target improves the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1, reopening the setup for a new position. | →Stable |
| CounterThe underlying quality and growth profile scores among the highest in the coverage universe; a strict entry-price discipline may cause a patient investor to miss a sustained re-rating if the stock continues to drift higher on fundamental momentum. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 43%, sustains net margins of 31%, and achieves a perfect financial health score — a combination consistent with strong competitive advantages and durable pricing power in its industry. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and net margin stays above 25% for at least 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGold mining ROE can be meaningfully distorted by commodity price cycles; returns earned in a high-price environment may compress rapidly if prices retreat, making the current profitability profile look more durable than it is. | ||
The three most recent prior quarters all missed consensus, while the latest quarter delivered a 12.5% positive surprise — actual earnings of $2.52 versus the $2.24 estimate — potentially marking the start of an improvement in earnings predictability. Earnings | Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, confirming that execution has inflected. | →Stable |
| CounterA single beat following three misses is insufficient evidence of a durable inflection; the prior misses averaged roughly 3% below estimates, and any moderation in commodity prices could push the next print back to a miss. | ||
An 8.7% gap up in a single session creates a zone of technical resistance and raises the probability of a near-term pullback before the next leg higher can be established. Technical breakdown | Price consolidates within 5% of current levels for at least 4 weeks without filling the gap, confirming accumulation at the new higher base. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks that gap up on fundamental re-ratings often do not fill those gaps quickly; if the gap reflects a genuine change in the investment narrative, it may hold as a new floor rather than a ceiling. | ||
Revenue has grown roughly 65% year over year, and growth scores the maximum across both revenue and earnings dimensions — a pace of expansion that the current forward P/E of 8.8x and near-zero PEG ratio do not appear to price in.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
Counter65% revenue growth driven by commodity price expansion is inherently cycle-dependent; the three prior quarterly earnings misses suggest the company has struggled to translate revenue growth into predictable earnings delivery.
At spot prices, the risk/reward of roughly 1-to-1 falls short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 threshold — with roughly 14% upside to the analyst target and comparable downside — making the current entry point unattractive despite the strong fundamental profile.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the entry target improves the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1, reopening the setup for a new position.
CounterThe underlying quality and growth profile scores among the highest in the coverage universe; a strict entry-price discipline may cause a patient investor to miss a sustained re-rating if the stock continues to drift higher on fundamental momentum.
The business earns a return on equity of 43%, sustains net margins of 31%, and achieves a perfect financial health score — a combination consistent with strong competitive advantages and durable pricing power in its industry.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and net margin stays above 25% for at least 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterGold mining ROE can be meaningfully distorted by commodity price cycles; returns earned in a high-price environment may compress rapidly if prices retreat, making the current profitability profile look more durable than it is.
The three most recent prior quarters all missed consensus, while the latest quarter delivered a 12.5% positive surprise — actual earnings of $2.52 versus the $2.24 estimate — potentially marking the start of an improvement in earnings predictability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, confirming that execution has inflected.
CounterA single beat following three misses is insufficient evidence of a durable inflection; the prior misses averaged roughly 3% below estimates, and any moderation in commodity prices could push the next print back to a miss.
An 8.7% gap up in a single session creates a zone of technical resistance and raises the probability of a near-term pullback before the next leg higher can be established.
→StableTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price consolidates within 5% of current levels for at least 4 weeks without filling the gap, confirming accumulation at the new higher base.
CounterStocks that gap up on fundamental re-ratings often do not fill those gaps quickly; if the gap reflects a genuine change in the investment narrative, it may hold as a new floor rather than a ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 43%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 65% YoY
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 585.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_B_EXCEPTIONAL_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.24
Upside
+30.4%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (9.1) with weak momentum (1.3)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.3<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.24.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 9.1, and Value at 9.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Peer rank at 3.7, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.24 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business earns a return on equity of 43%, sustains net margins of 31%, and achieves a perfect financial health score — a combination consistent with strong competitive advantages and durable pricing power in its industry.
Trip ifROE falls below 20% or net margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue has grown roughly 65% year over year, and growth scores the maximum across both revenue and earnings dimensions — a pace of expansion that the current forward P/E of 8.8x and near-zero PEG ratio do not appear to price in.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The three most recent prior quarters all missed consensus, while the latest quarter delivered a 12.5% positive surprise — actual earnings of $2.52 versus the $2.24 estimate — potentially marking the start of an improvement in earnings predictability.
Trip ifEPS falls below consensus in 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4An 8.7% gap up in a single session creates a zone of technical resistance and raises the probability of a near-term pullback before the next leg higher can be established.
Trip ifPrice advances beyond $101 (more than 10% above current levels) without a prior 5% retracement within 90 days.
- P5At spot prices, the risk/reward of roughly 1-to-1 falls short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 threshold — with roughly 14% upside to the analyst target and comparable downside — making the current entry point unattractive despite the strong fundamental profile.
Trip ifRisk/reward ratio improves above 1.5-to-1, with upside to the analyst target exceeding 20%.