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Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Electronics & Computer Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $206.27: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Arrow Electronics is a global distributor of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions, serving OEMs, EMS providers, VARs, and MSPs through 140+ sales facilities and 39 distribution centers across 85+ countries. Global components generates ~70% of 2025 sales, with... Read more

$206.27+2.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 5 Electronics & Computer Distribution
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.49%
Stop $191.83Target $211.37(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$214.50+4.0%4 analysts
$211.37our TP
$206.27price
$214.50mean
$165
$240

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $206.27: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Arrow Electronics, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: semiconductor products and related services (50.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (non-U.S.) (66.0%)
Target reached (-11.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$10.6B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth39.0%
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductsemiconductor products and related services50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of semiconductor products and related services represented approximately 50%, 53%, and 60%, of the company's consolidated sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • HIGHGeographicinternational operations (non-U.S.)66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 2024, and 2023, approximately 66%, 65%, and 66%, respectively, of the company's sales came from its operations outside the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.1
Roa
1.7
Operating Margin
1.7
Fcf Quality
2.9
Roe
3.8
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 36% FCF/NI
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $178.85Resistance $215.68

Price Targets

$192
$211
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $206.27: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $191.83. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $211.37 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $191.83. Stop-loss: $191.83.

What are the risks of investing in ARW?

Concentration risk — Product: semiconductor products and related services (50.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (non-U.S.) (66.0%); Target reached (-11.6% upside).

Is ARW overvalued or undervalued?

Arrow Electronics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARW?

13 analysts cover ARW with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $215.

What does Arrow Electronics, Inc. do?Arrow Electronics is a global distributor of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions, serving OEMs,...

Arrow Electronics is a global distributor of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions, serving OEMs, EMS providers, VARs, and MSPs through 140+ sales facilities and 39 distribution centers across 85+ countries. Global components generates ~70% of 2025 sales, with semiconductor products representing ~50% of consolidated sales; no single customer exceeds 2% of sales.

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