Value
9.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
- ▸Attractively valued
AR · Why this verdict
Why Antero Resources (AR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A wide economic moat and 34% revenue growth at a forward multiple of 7.3x create a compelling value opportunity, but three consecutive earnings misses — averaging a roughly 24% shortfall in those quarters — and severely depressed momentum mean the thesis requires execution proof before the full risk/reward can be captured.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens attractively valued with a forward multiple of 7.3x, a PEG ratio of 0.61, and a wide economic moat — while analyst consensus implies approximately 48% upside to their price targets, suggesting the market is pricing in far worse outcomes than the fundamental franchise warrants. Valuation breakdown | Over 12 months, the forward multiple should re-rate toward a level more consistent with moat-quality peers; sustained earnings delivery would be the primary catalyst to close the gap to consensus targets. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide moat designation does not protect against commodity-price cyclicality; if the energy pricing environment deteriorates, cheap multiples can stay cheap for extended periods and consensus targets can compress faster than the stock re-rates. | ||
Revenue growth of 34% year over year combined with a Rule of 40 score of 46 indicates the business is expanding at a pace that justifies a premium to the sector, with quality of growth — strong margins at 17% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — supporting the durability of that expansion. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 20% year over year for at least two consecutive quarters while the Rule of 40 composite stays above 40 to confirm the growth profile is not decelerating. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is 66% of net income, a gap that widens if growth-related spending accelerates; high headline growth can mask capital intensity, and if growth slows while investment continues, the quality of earnings could deteriorate. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters were misses — with shortfalls averaging roughly 24% in those three periods — and only the most recent quarter delivered a beat; the earnings delivery track record suggests management's guidance has been unreliable and consensus estimates may still carry downside risk. Catalyst breakdown | Two or more consecutive beats with positive surprises greater than 5% over the next 12 months would demonstrate that the miss streak was cyclical rather than structural. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat after the miss streak, which can mark an inflection; if pricing conditions stabilized and the guidance discipline improved, the miss pattern may already be in the past. | ||
Price momentum has fallen to the point where the stock sits well below its 200-day moving average with on-balance volume declining, though the moving average itself continues to rise, suggesting this is a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and momentum should recover above the minimum acceptable threshold within 12 months for the risk/reward to be actionable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is still rising, and the favorable asymmetry ratio of roughly 5-to-1 with 33% upside to target means the long-term setup could reward patient entry even before technical momentum fully recovers. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued with a forward multiple of 7.3x, a PEG ratio of 0.61, and a wide economic moat — while analyst consensus implies approximately 48% upside to their price targets, suggesting the market is pricing in far worse outcomes than the fundamental franchise warrants.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the forward multiple should re-rate toward a level more consistent with moat-quality peers; sustained earnings delivery would be the primary catalyst to close the gap to consensus targets.
CounterA wide moat designation does not protect against commodity-price cyclicality; if the energy pricing environment deteriorates, cheap multiples can stay cheap for extended periods and consensus targets can compress faster than the stock re-rates.
Revenue growth of 34% year over year combined with a Rule of 40 score of 46 indicates the business is expanding at a pace that justifies a premium to the sector, with quality of growth — strong margins at 17% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — supporting the durability of that expansion.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 20% year over year for at least two consecutive quarters while the Rule of 40 composite stays above 40 to confirm the growth profile is not decelerating.
CounterFree cash flow is 66% of net income, a gap that widens if growth-related spending accelerates; high headline growth can mask capital intensity, and if growth slows while investment continues, the quality of earnings could deteriorate.
Three of the four most recent quarters were misses — with shortfalls averaging roughly 24% in those three periods — and only the most recent quarter delivered a beat; the earnings delivery track record suggests management's guidance has been unreliable and consensus estimates may still carry downside risk.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Two or more consecutive beats with positive surprises greater than 5% over the next 12 months would demonstrate that the miss streak was cyclical rather than structural.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat after the miss streak, which can mark an inflection; if pricing conditions stabilized and the guidance discipline improved, the miss pattern may already be in the past.
Price momentum has fallen to the point where the stock sits well below its 200-day moving average with on-balance volume declining, though the moving average itself continues to rise, suggesting this is a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and momentum should recover above the minimum acceptable threshold within 12 months for the risk/reward to be actionable.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is still rising, and the favorable asymmetry ratio of roughly 5-to-1 with 33% upside to target means the long-term setup could reward patient entry even before technical momentum fully recovers.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.5 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.7 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $8,859,998 (0.083% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 3.4 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.81
Upside
+30.0%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.2, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock screens attractively valued with a forward multiple of 7.3x, a PEG ratio of 0.61, and a wide economic moat — while analyst consensus implies approximately 48% upside to their price targets, suggesting the market is pricing in far worse outcomes than the fundamental franchise warrants.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15x, compressing the discount to peers below a material margin of safety.
- P2Revenue growth of 34% year over year combined with a Rule of 40 score of 46 indicates the business is expanding at a pace that justifies a premium to the sector, with quality of growth — strong margins at 17% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — supporting the durability of that expansion.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Three of the four most recent quarters were misses — with shortfalls averaging roughly 24% in those three periods — and only the most recent quarter delivered a beat; the earnings delivery track record suggests management's guidance has been unreliable and consensus estimates may still carry downside risk.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the miss streak has reversed.
- P4Price momentum has fallen to the point where the stock sits well below its 200-day moving average with on-balance volume declining, though the moving average itself continues to rise, suggesting this is a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and momentum score rises above 4.5 on the 10-point scale.