Value
8.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
AR · Why this verdict
Why Antero Resources (AR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Antero Resources has strong margins, a wide moat and positive momentum at a forward P/E of 8.9x, but three earnings misses in four quarters, weak cash conversion and only 8.1% upside against 15.0% downside make adding unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Antero earns strong margins of 23% with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting high-quality operations for an energy producer. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 23% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEnergy margins track commodity prices, so a gas price drop could erase the margin advantage regardless of the moat. | ||
The stock is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG of 0.46, with analyst upside of 20% before the target haircut. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings hold so the low multiple converts into price appreciation toward the $45.49 analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterAfter the haircut the distance to the target is only 8.1%, so much of the valuation discount is already priced in. | ||
The company missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -10.7%, including -15.35% in the latest report. Earnings | The February 2027 report breaks the miss streak with a positive surprise. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA rising stock with strong margins suggests the market looks past earnings noise, so misses may reflect conservative estimate setting rather than deterioration. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag: free cash flow is only 19% of net income, and the Rule of 40 score of 21 falls short. Quality breakdown | FCF/net income improves above 50% as capital spending moderates. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital-intensive drilling programs depress FCF now but fund production that raises future cash flow. | ||
With RSI at 77 and upside of 8.1% against downside of 15.0% (reward-to-risk 0.54), the stock is overbought with a poor entry setup. Bear case | A pullback resets RSI below 60 and reward-to-risk improves above 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum with rising volume (OBV) and price above the 200-day average can persist, so waiting for a pullback may mean missing gains. | ||
Antero earns strong margins of 23% with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting high-quality operations for an energy producer.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 23% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher through the next 12 months.
CounterEnergy margins track commodity prices, so a gas price drop could erase the margin advantage regardless of the moat.
The stock is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG of 0.46, with analyst upside of 20% before the target haircut.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings hold so the low multiple converts into price appreciation toward the $45.49 analyst target.
CounterAfter the haircut the distance to the target is only 8.1%, so much of the valuation discount is already priced in.
The company missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -10.7%, including -15.35% in the latest report.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The February 2027 report breaks the miss streak with a positive surprise.
CounterA rising stock with strong margins suggests the market looks past earnings noise, so misses may reflect conservative estimate setting rather than deterioration.
Earnings quality is a red flag: free cash flow is only 19% of net income, and the Rule of 40 score of 21 falls short.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/net income improves above 50% as capital spending moderates.
CounterCapital-intensive drilling programs depress FCF now but fund production that raises future cash flow.
With RSI at 77 and upside of 8.1% against downside of 15.0% (reward-to-risk 0.54), the stock is overbought with a poor entry setup.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- A pullback resets RSI below 60 and reward-to-risk improves above 1.5.
CounterStrong momentum with rising volume (OBV) and price above the 200-day average can persist, so waiting for a pullback may mean missing gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| FCF quality | 1.5 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 19% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 3.4 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:98d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.17
Upside
+14.0%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Catalyst at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 7.1, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Peer rank at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Margins Wide Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% from current 23% or the Piotroski F-Score falls below 6.
- P2Attractive Valuation Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from current 8.9x.
- P3Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the miss streak to 5.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF/net income stays below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Overbought Thin Reward Risk
Trip ifPrice falls below the $39.24 stop level, a drop of more than 6.7% from $42.08.