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Applovin Corporation (APP) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $461.41 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions via Axon Ads Manager, enabling advertisers to find users and publishers to monetize inventory in mobile gaming and expanding web/CTV channels. Revenue comes almost entirely from advertising; the Apps business was sold June 30,... Read more

$438.58+31.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 9 Advertising Agencies
Entry $461.41(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $413.81Target $575.42(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$639.36+45.8%28 analysts
$575.42our TP
$438.58price
$639.36mean
$340
$860

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $461.41 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.24, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.6Qual8.9Grw10.0Mom2.8Sent8.3Ins3.3Peer6.0Tech3.6Risk3.86.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.3
P/E (Fwd)21.8
Mkt Cap$149.1B
EV/EBITDA35.3
Profit Mgn60.8%
ROE212.9%
Rev Growth65.9%
Beta2.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV104%elevated
Max Pain$200-54.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAxon Ads Manager
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of our revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CTO Basil Shikin stepping down July 1, 2026 (successor: Giovanni Ge appointed CTO). CLO Victoria Valenzuela retiring August 1, 2026 (successor: Corina Cacovean appointed CLO). Both clean handoffs.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.8
Rsi
3.8
Ma Position
7.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.8
Support Resistance
4.1
Bollinger
4.9
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $364.64Resistance $491.99

Price Targets

$414
$461
$575
A.Upside+31.2%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APP stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $461.41 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.24, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $575.42 (+31.2%), stop $413.81 (−6.0%), Setup A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $575.42 (+31.3% upside). Target $575.42 (+31.2%), stop $413.81 (−6.0%), Setup A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $413.81.

What are the risks of investing in APP?

Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is APP overvalued or undervalued?

Applovin Corporation trades at a P/E of 44.3 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about APP?

34 analysts cover APP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $639.

What does Applovin Corporation do?AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions via Axon Ads Manager, enabling advertisers to find users and...

AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions via Axon Ads Manager, enabling advertisers to find users and publishers to monetize inventory in mobile gaming and expanding web/CTV channels. Revenue comes almost entirely from advertising; the Apps business was sold June 30, 2025. The company had 898 employees across 15 countries as of Dec 31, 2025.

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