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Applovin Corporation (APP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

Wait for pullback to $446.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $472.29. Engine's entry $446.87 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions (Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, Wurl) enabling mobile app and CTV advertisers to acquire users and monetize content at scale globally. Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of total revenue; the company sold... Read more

$472.29+32.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 9 Advertising Agencies
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.98%
Entry $446.87(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $383.98Target $592.91(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.9:1Setup A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst target$644.47+36.5%30 analysts
$592.91our TP
$472.29price
$644.47mean
$340
$860

Wait for pullback to $446.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $472.29. Engine's entry $446.87 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.36, quality 9.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.5Qual9.2Grw10.0Mom2.5Sent7.4Ins3.4Peer5.8Tech4.2Risk4.16.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Applovin Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.5
P/E (Fwd)21.8
Mkt Cap$160.2B
EV/EBITDA33.1
Profit Mgn64.3%
ROE266.4%
Rev Growth59.0%
Beta2.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$200-57.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAxon Ads Manager
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of our revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CTO Basil Shikin stepping down July 1, 2026 (remaining as Distinguished Engineer); CLO Victoria Valenzuela retiring August 1, 2026 (consulting until May 2027). Successors named: Giovanni Ge as CTO, Corina Cacovean as CLO. Board also expanded.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
7.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $430.25Resistance $515.39

Price Targets

$384
$447
$593
A.Upside+25.5%
A.R:R1.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $446.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $472.29. Engine's entry $446.87 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.36, quality 9.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $592.91 (+25.5%), stop $383.98 (−23.0%), Setup A.R:R 4.6:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $592.91 (+32.2% upside). Target $592.91 (+25.5%), stop $383.98 (−23.0%), Setup A.R:R 4.6:1. Stop-loss: $383.98.

What are the risks of investing in APP?

Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is APP overvalued or undervalued?

Applovin Corporation trades at a P/E of 41.5 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about APP?

36 analysts cover APP with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $644.

What does Applovin Corporation do?AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions (Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, Wurl) enabling mobile app and CTV...

AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions (Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, Wurl) enabling mobile app and CTV advertisers to acquire users and monetize content at scale globally. Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of total revenue; the company sold its Apps gaming business on June 30, 2025 to focus purely on advertising technology.

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