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Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two approved complement-targeting drugs: SYFOVRE (intravitreal pegcetacoplan for GA, $586.9M U.S. net revenue in 2025) and EMPAVELI (subcutaneous pegcetacoplan for PNH/C3G/IC-MPGN, $102.4M). Sobi holds... Read more

$41.06-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#31 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.21%
Stop $40.91Target $40.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$40.92-0.3%13 analysts
$40.32our TP
$41.06price
$40.92mean
$40

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.3
P/E (Fwd)-103.1
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA31.9
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE46.0%
Rev Growth60.9%
Beta-0.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV41%normal
Max Pain$10-75.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductSYFOVRE
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects depend substantially upon the commercial success of SYFOVRE.'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartySobi
    10-K Item 1A: 'our ability to maintain a productive collaborative relationship with Sobi with respect to systemic pegcetacoplan, including our ability to achieve milestone payments under our agreement with Sobi'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-31Item 1.01HIGH
    Apellis entered into Agreement and Plan of Merger with Biogen Inc. on March 30, 2026. Biogen to acquire all outstanding shares at $41.00/share plus one CVR worth up to $4.00 in contingent milestone cash. Change of control transaction.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation committee approved amendment to Executive Separation Benefits Plan effective upon Biogen merger closing, accelerating vesting for Converted Options and RSU Awards on qualifying terminations.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Board elected Mikael Dolsten, M.D., Ph.D. as a Class I director effective March 1, 2026. Determined independent per Nasdaq rules; granted standard new director equity awards.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Pe
3.2
Ps
7.1
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.80Resistance $41.14

Price Targets

$41
$40
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APLS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $40.32 (-1.8%), stop $40.91 (−0.4%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APLS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.32 (-1.7% upside). Target $40.32 (-1.8%), stop $40.91 (−0.4%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $40.91.

What are the risks of investing in APLS?

Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away).

Is APLS overvalued or undervalued?

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.3 (forward -103.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about APLS?

27 analysts cover APLS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two approved complement-targeting drugs:...

Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two approved complement-targeting drugs: SYFOVRE (intravitreal pegcetacoplan for GA, $586.9M U.S. net revenue in 2025) and EMPAVELI (subcutaneous pegcetacoplan for PNH/C3G/IC-MPGN, $102.4M). Sobi holds exclusive ex-U.S. rights for systemic pegcetacoplan; Apellis agreed to be acquired by Biogen for $41/share plus CVR in March 2026.

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