Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the APLS stock price target?

Take-profit $40.18 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $40.80.

Q: What are the risks of investing in APLS?

Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE; Target reached (-10.0% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Target reached (-10.0% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Q: Is APLS overvalued or undervalued?

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 227.5 (forward -167.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about APLS?

27 analysts cover APLS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

SellHigh ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharma with two marketed complement inhibitors: SYFOVRE for geographic atrophy ($586.9M US net revenue 2025) and EMPAVELI for PNH/C3G/IC-MPGN ($102.4M US net revenue). Ex-U.S. commercialization of EMPAVELI is handled by Sobi. In... Read more

$40.94-1.9% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#155 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $40.80Target $40.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1

Analyst target$40.93-0.0%15 analysts

$40.18our TP

$40.94price

$40.93mean

$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.94: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 17.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE

Target reached (-10.0% upside)

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)227.5

P/E (Fwd)-167.7

Mkt Cap$5.2B

EV/EBITDA92.0

Profit Mgn2.2%

ROE7.5%

Rev Growth-5.9%

Beta-0.20

DividendNone

Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C17.17bearish

IV61%elevated

Max Pain$15-63.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductSYFOVRE
10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects depend substantially upon the commercial success of SYFOVRE.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-31Item 1.01HIGH
Apellis entered Agreement and Plan of Merger with Biogen Inc. Offer: $41.00/share cash plus one CVR worth up to $4.00 on milestone achievement. Tender offer to commence within 20 business days. Change of control transaction.
SEC filing →
2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
Board elected Mikael Dolsten, M.D., Ph.D. as Class I director effective March 1, 2026, to serve until 2027 Annual Meeting. Determined independent under Nasdaq rules. No committee appointment cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.515%0.67

Quality4.015%0.60

Growth1.015%0.15

Momentum4.710%0.47

Sentiment4.010%0.40

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.310%0.33

Technical Setup4.75%0.24

Risk Profile4.75%0.24

Catalyst2.55%0.13

Overall (Σ contributions)3.72

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -5.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.0

Declining revenue: -6%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg

0.0

Erm

1.5

Earnings History

3.3

Earnings Timing

5.0

Estimates down -9.6% (30d)Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 6 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

2.6

Value Rank

3.9

Quality Rank

6.8

Superior ROE vs peers

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

71 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.35Resistance $41.00

Price Targets

$41

$40

A.Upside-1.9%

A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.0% upside)

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is APLS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.94: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 17.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $40.80. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the APLS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.18 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $40.80. Stop-loss: $40.80.

What are the risks of investing in APLS?

Concentration risk — Product: SYFOVRE; Target reached (-10.0% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is APLS overvalued or undervalued?

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 227.5 (forward -167.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APLS?

27 analysts cover APLS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharma with two marketed complement inhibitors: SYFOVRE for geographic...