Value
4.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸PEG: 1.87
AMPX · Why this verdict
Why Amprius Technologies (AMPX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue has grown approximately 153% year-over-year—among the highest growth rates in the sector—but the business is cash-burning at approximately 39% of revenue, lacks a competitive moat, broke a three-quarter earnings beat streak with a significant miss, and carries weak price momentum; the growth optionality is real but currently outweighed by fundamental fragility and quality well below the 4.0 minimum threshold.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
After three straight quarters of beating cost expectations—by approximately 38%, 48%, and 74% respectively going back in time—the most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 167%, a significant break in the cadence that raises questions about model predictability. Earnings | EPS surprise returning above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters would re-establish execution credibility and signal the most recent quarter was an outlier. | →Stable |
| CounterThree prior consecutive beats set a high bar; a single large negative surprise following a string of positive ones may reflect estimation difficulty on a rapidly scaling business rather than operational deterioration. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative at approximately 39% of revenue, there is no demonstrable competitive moat, and overall business quality sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold for investment-grade operations—indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining and depends on external capital to fund its growth. Quality breakdown | FCF burn rate narrowing to below 20% of revenue and quality recovering above the 4.0 floor within four quarters would indicate the fundamental trajectory is improving. | →Stable |
| CounterCompanies in early revenue-ramp phases often run substantial cash deficits while scaling production and infrastructure; the 153% revenue growth rate, if sustained, could rapidly convert into positive unit economics as fixed costs are absorbed by a larger revenue base. | ||
Revenue has grown approximately 153% year-over-year, making this among the fastest-growing names in its sector peer group—though this growth is currently consuming capital rather than generating it, and sustaining triple-digit rates from an expanding base becomes progressively more difficult. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remaining above 50% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters while FCF losses narrow would confirm the growth-to-profitability trajectory is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth rates from a small base can reflect easy year-over-year comparisons rather than durable demand acceleration; if the growth rate normalizes sharply below 50%, the implied valuation could look excessive relative to a decelerating business. | ||
Price momentum sits below the 4.5 threshold required for an actionable setup, with MACD bearish and on-balance volume showing no clear accumulation trend—leaving the technical picture range-bound rather than directionally trending despite the underlying growth story. Momentum breakdown | OBV turning upward and price breaking above recent resistance for 3 consecutive weeks would signal momentum has recovered sufficiently to support an entry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock retains its position above the 200-day moving average, which provides a longer-term floor; a period of price consolidation at this level before a new up-leg is consistent with healthy base-building after a rapid advance. | ||
After three straight quarters of beating cost expectations—by approximately 38%, 48%, and 74% respectively going back in time—the most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 167%, a significant break in the cadence that raises questions about model predictability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise returning above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters would re-establish execution credibility and signal the most recent quarter was an outlier.
CounterThree prior consecutive beats set a high bar; a single large negative surprise following a string of positive ones may reflect estimation difficulty on a rapidly scaling business rather than operational deterioration.
Free cash flow is deeply negative at approximately 39% of revenue, there is no demonstrable competitive moat, and overall business quality sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold for investment-grade operations—indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining and depends on external capital to fund its growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF burn rate narrowing to below 20% of revenue and quality recovering above the 4.0 floor within four quarters would indicate the fundamental trajectory is improving.
CounterCompanies in early revenue-ramp phases often run substantial cash deficits while scaling production and infrastructure; the 153% revenue growth rate, if sustained, could rapidly convert into positive unit economics as fixed costs are absorbed by a larger revenue base.
Revenue has grown approximately 153% year-over-year, making this among the fastest-growing names in its sector peer group—though this growth is currently consuming capital rather than generating it, and sustaining triple-digit rates from an expanding base becomes progressively more difficult.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remaining above 50% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters while FCF losses narrow would confirm the growth-to-profitability trajectory is intact.
CounterTriple-digit growth rates from a small base can reflect easy year-over-year comparisons rather than durable demand acceleration; if the growth rate normalizes sharply below 50%, the implied valuation could look excessive relative to a decelerating business.
Price momentum sits below the 4.5 threshold required for an actionable setup, with MACD bearish and on-balance volume showing no clear accumulation trend—leaving the technical picture range-bound rather than directionally trending despite the underlying growth story.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- OBV turning upward and price breaking above recent resistance for 3 consecutive weeks would signal momentum has recovered sufficiently to support an entry.
CounterThe stock retains its position above the 200-day moving average, which provides a longer-term floor; a period of price consolidation at this level before a new up-leg is consistent with healthy base-building after a rapid advance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -39% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 153% YoY
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 16, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+12.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 81%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $28,910,181 (1.630% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 0.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.65
- ▸High IV: 99%
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.83
Upside
+57.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.13>1.3, MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.7, and Technical at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Quality at 1.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free cash flow is deeply negative at approximately 39% of revenue, there is no demonstrable competitive moat, and overall business quality sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold for investment-grade operations—indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining and depends on external capital to fund its growth.
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive (FCF/revenue ratio rises above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue has grown approximately 153% year-over-year, making this among the fastest-growing names in its sector peer group—though this growth is currently consuming capital rather than generating it, and sustaining triple-digit rates from an expanding base becomes progressively more difficult.
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 50% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 153%.
- P3After three straight quarters of beating cost expectations—by approximately 38%, 48%, and 74% respectively going back in time—the most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 167%, a significant break in the cadence that raises questions about model predictability.
Trip ifEPS surprise returns above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price momentum sits below the 4.5 threshold required for an actionable setup, with MACD bearish and on-balance volume showing no clear accumulation trend—leaving the technical picture range-bound rather than directionally trending despite the underlying growth story.
Trip ifOBV reverses to a rising trend and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks.