Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
AMKR · Why this verdict
Why Amkor Technology (AMKR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats averaging approximately 38% above consensus and healthy price momentum demonstrate operational execution, but negative free cash flow, business quality below the 4.0 minimum threshold, roughly 83% revenue concentration in a single product category, and just 1.7% headroom to the near-term resistance target combine to make the current risk-adjusted setup unfavorable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Advanced products account for approximately 83% of total revenue, concentrating the company's economic fate in a single product category and amplifying the impact of any demand weakness or pricing pressure in that segment. Bear case | Revenue from segments outside advanced products growing to represent more than 30% of total would indicate the concentration risk is meaningfully diminishing. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh concentration in a leading product line may reflect disciplined focus where the business earns its strongest economics; if demand for advanced products remains robust, the concentration becomes a feature of strategic clarity rather than a structural liability. | ||
Free cash flow is running negative relative to net income—flagged as a red flag at -11%—pulling overall business quality below the 4.0 minimum threshold for investment-grade operations. The balance sheet earns a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad financial health on accrual measures, but cash generation is not keeping pace with reported earnings. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI ratio recovering to positive territory for 2 consecutive quarters would signal the cash quality concern is resolving and quality is on a path back above the 4.0 floor. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests the income statement and balance sheet are broadly sound; if the FCF shortfall reflects a timing gap rather than a structural issue, quality metrics may recover faster than the current level implies. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of approximately 38%—a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | A fifth consecutive beat in the upcoming reporting cycle, with a positive surprise above 15%, would confirm this execution cadence is durable rather than a function of depressed sell-side expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterSustained beat streaks lead analysts to reset estimates higher over time; if forecasts move materially upward ahead of the next report, clearing them becomes structurally more difficult and the streak may break without any operational deterioration. | ||
At the current price, just 1.7% headroom remains to the near-term resistance target while the risk/reward ratio sits at 0.24-to-1, meaning potential downside outweighs the potential gain by roughly four to one—making the current entry point unfavorable for new capital even if momentum continues. Price targets | A price pullback creating more than 10% upside to the resistance target would restore a more favorable risk-adjusted setup. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice sits above all major moving averages with volume accumulating, and a positive catalyst could push through resistance—suggesting the current 1.7% gap may simply be the next intermediate stop rather than the effective ceiling. | ||
Advanced products account for approximately 83% of total revenue, concentrating the company's economic fate in a single product category and amplifying the impact of any demand weakness or pricing pressure in that segment.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from segments outside advanced products growing to represent more than 30% of total would indicate the concentration risk is meaningfully diminishing.
CounterHigh concentration in a leading product line may reflect disciplined focus where the business earns its strongest economics; if demand for advanced products remains robust, the concentration becomes a feature of strategic clarity rather than a structural liability.
Free cash flow is running negative relative to net income—flagged as a red flag at -11%—pulling overall business quality below the 4.0 minimum threshold for investment-grade operations. The balance sheet earns a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad financial health on accrual measures, but cash generation is not keeping pace with reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI ratio recovering to positive territory for 2 consecutive quarters would signal the cash quality concern is resolving and quality is on a path back above the 4.0 floor.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests the income statement and balance sheet are broadly sound; if the FCF shortfall reflects a timing gap rather than a structural issue, quality metrics may recover faster than the current level implies.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of approximately 38%—a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat in the upcoming reporting cycle, with a positive surprise above 15%, would confirm this execution cadence is durable rather than a function of depressed sell-side expectations.
CounterSustained beat streaks lead analysts to reset estimates higher over time; if forecasts move materially upward ahead of the next report, clearing them becomes structurally more difficult and the streak may break without any operational deterioration.
At the current price, just 1.7% headroom remains to the near-term resistance target while the risk/reward ratio sits at 0.24-to-1, meaning potential downside outweighs the potential gain by roughly four to one—making the current entry point unfavorable for new capital even if momentum continues.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A price pullback creating more than 10% upside to the resistance target would restore a more favorable risk-adjusted setup.
CounterPrice sits above all major moving averages with volume accumulating, and a positive catalyst could push through resistance—suggesting the current 1.7% gap may simply be the next intermediate stop rather than the effective ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -11% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $8,497,550 (0.041% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.7%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.5 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Above max pain $47
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 40.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.43
Upside
-21.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.26>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Catalyst at 7.2, and Peer rank at 5.3; the weakest are Quality at 3.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free cash flow is running negative relative to net income—flagged as a red flag at -11%—pulling overall business quality below the 4.0 minimum threshold for investment-grade operations. The balance sheet earns a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating broad financial health on accrual measures, but cash generation is not keeping pace with reported earnings.
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of approximately 38%—a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Advanced products account for approximately 83% of total revenue, concentrating the company's economic fate in a single product category and amplifying the impact of any demand weakness or pricing pressure in that segment.
Trip ifAdvanced products revenue falls below 65% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4At the current price, just 1.7% headroom remains to the near-term resistance target while the risk/reward ratio sits at 0.24-to-1, meaning potential downside outweighs the potential gain by roughly four to one—making the current entry point unfavorable for new capital even if momentum continues.
Trip ifUpside to the near-term resistance target exceeds 10% from the current price.