Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
AMKR · Why this verdict
Why Amkor Technology (AMKR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amkor looks cheap at a 14.2x forward P/E with 45.4% upside to the $57.42 analyst target and a 3.21 reward-to-risk, but negative free cash flow relative to income, no moat, weak price momentum and 16% short interest make this a speculative setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Amkor trades at a forward P/E of 14.2x with a PEG of 0.07 and a 36% margin of safety, ranking among the cheaper peers on value (value rank 9.1/10). Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should hold the PEG well below 1.0 and the valuation discount should narrow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCheap multiples on cyclical semiconductor earnings can be value traps if earnings peak, and the growth rank versus peers is 0.0/10. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag because free cash flow is negative at -95% of net income, and the business has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive and recover toward net income as capital spending normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy capacity investment can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the underlying accounting is sound. | ||
The price of $39.50 sits 45.4% below the $57.42 analyst target, with 14.1% downside and a reward-to-risk of 3.21. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $36.73 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a 59% drawdown from the 52-week high shows targets have not protected holders. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.7/10 with the price below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising (+0.9% over 30 days) and on-balance volume is rising, pointing to a pullback in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average while volume accumulation continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 6.8% gap down and a position 59% below the 52-week high suggest real weakness rather than a routine pullback. | ||
Advanced Products make up 82.8% of the business, while short interest of 16% and implied volatility of 78% mark a risky, volatile profile. Bear case | Segment concentration should not rise further and short interest should decline as sentiment improves. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in the fastest-growing segment could be what drives the earnings growth score of 10/10, so diversification might lower returns. | ||
Amkor trades at a forward P/E of 14.2x with a PEG of 0.07 and a 36% margin of safety, ranking among the cheaper peers on value (value rank 9.1/10).
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should hold the PEG well below 1.0 and the valuation discount should narrow.
CounterCheap multiples on cyclical semiconductor earnings can be value traps if earnings peak, and the growth rank versus peers is 0.0/10.
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag because free cash flow is negative at -95% of net income, and the business has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and recover toward net income as capital spending normalizes.
CounterHeavy capacity investment can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the underlying accounting is sound.
The price of $39.50 sits 45.4% below the $57.42 analyst target, with 14.1% downside and a reward-to-risk of 3.21.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target without breaching the $36.73 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a 59% drawdown from the 52-week high shows targets have not protected holders.
Momentum is weak at 3.7/10 with the price below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising (+0.9% over 30 days) and on-balance volume is rising, pointing to a pullback in an uptrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average while volume accumulation continues.
CounterA 6.8% gap down and a position 59% below the 52-week high suggest real weakness rather than a routine pullback.
Advanced Products make up 82.8% of the business, while short interest of 16% and implied volatility of 78% mark a risky, volatile profile.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Segment concentration should not rise further and short interest should decline as sentiment improves.
CounterConcentration in the fastest-growing segment could be what drives the earnings growth score of 10/10, so diversification might lower returns.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -95% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 6.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,749,620 (0.041% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 80%
- ▸Above max pain $32
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:97d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.36
Upside
+49.2%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -60% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.36 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Sentiment at 7.7, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Safety Margin
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 20x from the current 14.2x.
- P2Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $44, leaving less than 11% upside from $39.50.
- P3Negative Cash Flow Quality Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average 30-day change falls below 0% from the current +0.9%.
- P5Advanced Products Concentration
Trip ifAdvanced Products share of revenue exceeds 90% from the current 82.8%.