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Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets in the Appalachian Basin. It operates in two segments, Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling. The gathering and processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor... Read more

$22.37-1.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#14 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.32%
IncomeYield4.04%(5y avg 7.30%)Payout104.65%at-risk
Stop $21.37Target $22.02(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$23.29+4.1%7 analysts
$22.02our TP
$22.37price
$23.29mean
$20
$26

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Antero Midstream Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.9
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$10.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.9%
ROE20.4%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.66
Dividend4.04%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerAntero Resources
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our revenue is currently derived from Antero Resources, any development that materially and adversely affects Antero Resources' operations, financial condition or market reputation could have a material and adverse impact on us.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
9.0
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.67Resistance $22.47

Price Targets

$21
$22
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.02 (-1.6%), stop $21.37 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.02 (-1.6% upside). Target $22.02 (-1.6%), stop $21.37 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $21.37.

What are the risks of investing in AM?

Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.

Is AM overvalued or undervalued?

Antero Midstream Corporation trades at a P/E of 25.9 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AM?

16 analysts cover AM with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Antero Midstream Corporation do?Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets in the Appalachian Basin. It operates...

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets in the Appalachian Basin. It operates in two segments, Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling. The gathering and processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collect and process natural gas and NGLs from Antero Resources' wells in West Virginia and Ohio. The Water Handling segment delivers water from sources, including the Ohio River, local reservoirs, and various regional waterways; other fluid handling services, which include transfer and disposal; uses water handling systems to transport flowback and produced water; and buried pipelines, surface pipelines, and water storage facilities, as well as pumping stations and blending facilities. Antero Midstream Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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