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Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources.

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets in the Appalachian Basin. It operates in two segments, Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling. The gathering and processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor... Read more

$21.68+3.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#11 of 41 Oil & Gas Midstream
Stop $20.61Target $22.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$23.29+7.4%7 analysts
$22.33our TP
$21.68price
$23.29mean
$20
$26

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.4
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$10.4B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn32.8%
ROE20.2%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.72
Dividend4.11%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerAntero Resources
    10-K Item 1A: 'Because substantially all of our revenue is currently derived from Antero Resources'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.19Resistance $22.79

Price Targets

$21
$22
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $20.61. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.33 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $20.61. Stop-loss: $20.61.

What are the risks of investing in AM?

Concentration risk — Customer: Antero Resources; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is AM overvalued or undervalued?

Antero Midstream Corporation trades at a P/E of 25.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AM?

16 analysts cover AM with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Antero Midstream Corporation do?Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets in the Appalachian Basin. It operates...

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets in the Appalachian Basin. It operates in two segments, Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling. The gathering and processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collect and process natural gas and NGLs from Antero Resources' wells in West Virginia and Ohio. The Water Handling segment delivers water from sources, including the Ohio River, local reservoirs, and various regional waterways; other fluid handling services, which include transfer and disposal; uses water handling systems to transport flowback and produced water; and buried pipelines, surface pipelines, and water storage facilities, as well as pumping stations and blending facilities. Antero Midstream Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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