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ALKTAlkami Technology, Inc.Sell6.0·$15.80-0.57%
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Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.80: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.67; Below-average business quality.

Alkami provides a cloud-based SaaS digital banking platform to community, regional, and super-regional banks and credit unions across the U.S., serving 301 financial institutions and 22.4M registered users as of Dec 31, 2025. Revenue is predominantly from multi-year... Read more

$15.80+18.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#24 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.85%
Stop $15.03Target $18.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$21.67+37.1%9 analysts
$18.85our TP
$15.80price
$21.67mean
$27

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.80: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-65.0
Profit Mgn-10.6%
ROE-14.1%
Rev Growth28.9%
Beta0.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C6.67bearish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierAWS
    10-K Item 1A: 'We primarily serve our clients from third-party data center hosting facilities provided by AWS... we cannot easily switch our AWS operations to another cloud provider'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Jeffrey Fox and Judson Linville as new independent directors, effective following the 2026 Annual Meeting. Both will serve as Class I and III directors respectively. No officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
5.1
Growth Rank
7.9

Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.6
Current Ratio
7.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 14%, FCF yield 3.9%)
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5INSIDER 13.26%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.49Resistance $19.25

Price Targets

$15
$19
A.Upside+19.3%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 13.26%=extreme

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALKT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.80: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $15.03. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALKT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.85 (+18.9% upside). Prior stop was $15.03. Stop-loss: $15.03.

What are the risks of investing in ALKT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is ALKT overvalued or undervalued?

Alkami Technology, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALKT?

16 analysts cover ALKT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Alkami Technology, Inc. do?Alkami provides a cloud-based SaaS digital banking platform to community, regional, and super-regional banks and credit...

Alkami provides a cloud-based SaaS digital banking platform to community, regional, and super-regional banks and credit unions across the U.S., serving 301 financial institutions and 22.4M registered users as of Dec 31, 2025. Revenue is predominantly from multi-year per-registered-user subscription contracts, with SaaS representing 95% of $443.6M total 2025 revenues.

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