Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
AIZ · Why this verdict
Why Assurant (AIZ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Assurant delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a 34% beat in November 2025 — and screens attractively at a forward P/E of 11.5x with a PEG of 0.13, while free cash flow runs at 203% of net income signaling strong cash generation. Yet the stock has already crossed above its price target and a hard geographic concentration gate was triggered with more than 80% of revenue in a single region, making the setup one that favors patience for existing holders rather than new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 0.13, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a notably low multiple that implies the market has not fully credited the earnings trajectory. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 15x over the next 12 months as earnings estimates are revised higher and the market progressively re-rates the growth story. | →Stable |
| CounterA structural discount applied for geographic concentration and a flagged key risk of below-average business quality can keep the multiple persistently compressed regardless of growth momentum; a low PEG can persist indefinitely when the market applies a consistent qualitative penalty. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a standout 34% beat in the quarter ended November 2025 — demonstrating a sustained pattern of delivering results well above market expectations. Earnings | Earnings continue to beat consensus by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the established track record. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock that has already crossed above its price target after a sustained beat streak may already be pricing in continued outperformance; any quarter that merely meets estimates could trigger a sell-the-news reaction given that the margin of safety has been exhausted. | ||
More than 80% of revenue is tied to North America — a concentration level significant enough to trigger a hard block — meaning any regional macroeconomic shock would translate almost entirely into an earnings shock with no meaningful offset from non-North American operations. Warnings | North American revenue contribution falls below 70% over 4 consecutive quarters as the non-North American book grows meaningfully, reducing the cliff exposure. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep regional scale in specialty insurance and connected-device protection may generate underwriting efficiencies and claims predictability that a more geographically distributed book cannot replicate, making the concentration a source of competitive advantage rather than fragility. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 203% of reported net income, indicating the business generates substantially more real cash than accounting earnings alone reflect — a strong signal of earnings quality and balance sheet durability that supports dividend coverage and capital flexibility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 120% for the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the cash-generation advantage is structural rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterA flagged key risk of below-average business quality on other dimensions — including return on assets of 1.6 and modest operating margin — offsets the strong cash conversion; the cash advantage alone may be insufficient to drive a meaningful valuation re-rating without improvement across multiple quality dimensions. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 0.13, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a notably low multiple that implies the market has not fully credited the earnings trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 15x over the next 12 months as earnings estimates are revised higher and the market progressively re-rates the growth story.
CounterA structural discount applied for geographic concentration and a flagged key risk of below-average business quality can keep the multiple persistently compressed regardless of growth momentum; a low PEG can persist indefinitely when the market applies a consistent qualitative penalty.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a standout 34% beat in the quarter ended November 2025 — demonstrating a sustained pattern of delivering results well above market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat consensus by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the established track record.
CounterA stock that has already crossed above its price target after a sustained beat streak may already be pricing in continued outperformance; any quarter that merely meets estimates could trigger a sell-the-news reaction given that the margin of safety has been exhausted.
More than 80% of revenue is tied to North America — a concentration level significant enough to trigger a hard block — meaning any regional macroeconomic shock would translate almost entirely into an earnings shock with no meaningful offset from non-North American operations.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- North American revenue contribution falls below 70% over 4 consecutive quarters as the non-North American book grows meaningfully, reducing the cliff exposure.
CounterDeep regional scale in specialty insurance and connected-device protection may generate underwriting efficiencies and claims predictability that a more geographically distributed book cannot replicate, making the concentration a source of competitive advantage rather than fragility.
Free cash flow is running at 203% of reported net income, indicating the business generates substantially more real cash than accounting earnings alone reflect — a strong signal of earnings quality and balance sheet durability that supports dividend coverage and capital flexibility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 120% for the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the cash-generation advantage is structural rather than episodic.
CounterA flagged key risk of below-average business quality on other dimensions — including return on assets of 1.6 and modest operating margin — offsets the strong cash conversion; the cash advantage alone may be insufficient to drive a meaningful valuation re-rating without improvement across multiple quality dimensions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 203% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,211,614 (0.070% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $230
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 133.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.89
Upside
-6.7%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Insider at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 7.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.1, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 15.5% — including a standout 34% beat in the quarter ended November 2025 — demonstrating a sustained pattern of delivering results well above market expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2At a forward P/E of 11.5x and a PEG of 0.13, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate — a notably low multiple that implies the market has not fully credited the earnings trajectory.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x from the current 11.5x, eliminating the valuation advantage versus the earnings growth rate.
- P3More than 80% of revenue is tied to North America — a concentration level significant enough to trigger a hard block — meaning any regional macroeconomic shock would translate almost entirely into an earnings shock with no meaningful offset from non-North American operations.
Trip ifNorth American revenue share falls below 70% for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods, indicating meaningful geographic diversification that reduces the regional concentration.
- P4Free cash flow is running at 203% of reported net income, indicating the business generates substantially more real cash than accounting earnings alone reflect — a strong signal of earnings quality and balance sheet durability that supports dividend coverage and capital flexibility.
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the cash-conversion premium.