Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.52
AAMI · Why this verdict
Why Acadian Asset Management (AAMI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Acadian is a high-return asset manager with 33% YoY growth and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but the stock has moved above the analyst target and 70% non-U.S. AUM exposure creates regional concentration risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Acadian earns excellent returns, with ROE of 82% and margins of 17%, supporting a quality score of 7.4. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 50% and margins above 15% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA very high ROE can reflect a small equity base and leverage rather than durable economics, and fee margins depend on market levels. | ||
Growth is strong at 33% YoY and the company has beaten earnings estimates four quarters in a row, most recently $1.36 versus $1.21 expected. Catalyst breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth should stay above 15% YoY with continued positive EPS surprises. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAsset manager earnings track market levels and performance fees, so a market downturn could reverse growth quickly. | ||
Price of $88.92 sits above the analyst target of $80.47 (upside_pct -9.5%), so target reached leaves negative reward-to-risk of -1.31. Warnings | Analysts should raise targets toward the current price, or price should consolidate toward the target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe target may simply lag a re-rating driven by growth, with a forward P/E of 14.2x and PEG of 0.50 still looking inexpensive. | ||
70% of AUM is non-U.S. denominated, above the 60% threshold, which makes a regional macroeconomic shock a terminal risk for the franchise. Bear case | Non-U.S. AUM share should hold near or below 70% without client outflows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGlobal diversification across non-U.S. markets may actually spread risk and is core to the firm's investment strategy. | ||
Insiders sold $2,235,161 (0.071% of market cap) while institutions are accumulating, a mixed but minor signal. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should stay below 0.2% of market cap while institutional holdings keep rising. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider conviction scores low at 2.0 and no insider buying offsets the selling. | ||
Acadian earns excellent returns, with ROE of 82% and margins of 17%, supporting a quality score of 7.4.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 50% and margins above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterA very high ROE can reflect a small equity base and leverage rather than durable economics, and fee margins depend on market levels.
Growth is strong at 33% YoY and the company has beaten earnings estimates four quarters in a row, most recently $1.36 versus $1.21 expected.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth should stay above 15% YoY with continued positive EPS surprises.
CounterAsset manager earnings track market levels and performance fees, so a market downturn could reverse growth quickly.
Price of $88.92 sits above the analyst target of $80.47 (upside_pct -9.5%), so target reached leaves negative reward-to-risk of -1.31.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets toward the current price, or price should consolidate toward the target.
CounterThe target may simply lag a re-rating driven by growth, with a forward P/E of 14.2x and PEG of 0.50 still looking inexpensive.
70% of AUM is non-U.S. denominated, above the 60% threshold, which makes a regional macroeconomic shock a terminal risk for the franchise.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-U.S. AUM share should hold near or below 70% without client outflows.
CounterGlobal diversification across non-U.S. markets may actually spread risk and is core to the firm's investment strategy.
Insiders sold $2,235,161 (0.071% of market cap) while institutions are accumulating, a mixed but minor signal.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay below 0.2% of market cap while institutional holdings keep rising.
CounterInsider conviction scores low at 2.0 and no insider buying offsets the selling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 82%
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 33% YoY
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.38 (n=4)
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.09
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.5, and Catalyst at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Peer rank at 5.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Return Asset Manager
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from current 7.4.
- P2Strong Growth Earnings Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises more than 20% above the analyst target without target upgrades, from current 10.5% above.
- P4Non Us Aum Regional Concentration
Trip ifNon-U.S. denominated AUM share exceeds 80% from current 70%.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.3% of market cap in 90 days.