Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.52
AAMI · Why this verdict
Why Acadian Asset Management (AAMI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Acadian Asset Management exhibits high-quality financials — 143% free cash flow conversion and 39% year-over-year revenue growth — with a technically favorable risk/reward of 3.5-to-1 to the near-term resistance target, but the stock trades approximately 27.6% above analyst consensus and a 70% non-U.S. AUM concentration constitutes a geographic cliff that warrants only a small initial position while awaiting a pullback to a better entry level.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business demonstrates high-quality financial characteristics — excellent cash conversion of 143% relative to net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 — traits consistent with a franchise generating durable returns well above reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% and the Piotroski F-Score holds at or near 7 out of 9 over the next 4 quarters, confirming the quality profile. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe reported return on equity of 112% is likely inflated by a buyback-reduced equity base rather than genuine economic compounding; if one adjusts for this distortion, the underlying return on capital may be less exceptional than headline metrics suggest. | ||
With 39% year-over-year revenue growth and a PEG of 0.52 at a forward P/E of 13.8x, the firm ranks as an industry growth leader trading at a growth-adjusted multiple that does not fully reflect the earnings trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 25% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the industry growth leadership position. | →Stable |
| Counter70% of AUM is non-U.S. denominated, meaning a meaningful share of this growth is geographically concentrated; if a regional macroeconomic shock triggers AUM outflows from those markets, the 39% growth rate could deteriorate rapidly with limited transition time. | ||
With 70% of AUM denominated in non-U.S. currencies — above the 60% threshold that triggers a hard block — a regional macroeconomic shock could produce idiosyncratic AUM outflows that no amount of quality or momentum can offset. Warnings | This pillar is falsified if non-U.S. AUM concentration falls below 60% of total AUM through geographic diversification for 2 consecutive quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe same geographic tilt that creates concentration risk also underlies the 39% revenue growth and industry-leader ranking; if non-U.S. markets continue to outperform, the geographic concentration may prove a tailwind rather than a liability. | ||
Despite a favorable technical risk/reward to the near-term resistance target, the stock trades approximately 27.6% above analyst consensus price targets; this divergence suggests either a pending analyst upgrade cycle or a stock that has outrun fundamental valuation support. Bear case | This pillar is falsified if analyst consensus price targets are revised upward such that consensus implies positive upside from current levels for 2 consecutive quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe strong momentum profile — golden cross, above all moving averages, 2x average volume on the up move — and 3 consecutive earnings beats may be driving a legitimate fundamental re-rating that analysts have not yet captured; if consensus upgrades follow, the gap could close from the target side rather than through price deterioration. | ||
The business demonstrates high-quality financial characteristics — excellent cash conversion of 143% relative to net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 — traits consistent with a franchise generating durable returns well above reported earnings.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% and the Piotroski F-Score holds at or near 7 out of 9 over the next 4 quarters, confirming the quality profile.
CounterThe reported return on equity of 112% is likely inflated by a buyback-reduced equity base rather than genuine economic compounding; if one adjusts for this distortion, the underlying return on capital may be less exceptional than headline metrics suggest.
With 39% year-over-year revenue growth and a PEG of 0.52 at a forward P/E of 13.8x, the firm ranks as an industry growth leader trading at a growth-adjusted multiple that does not fully reflect the earnings trajectory.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 25% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the industry growth leadership position.
Counter70% of AUM is non-U.S. denominated, meaning a meaningful share of this growth is geographically concentrated; if a regional macroeconomic shock triggers AUM outflows from those markets, the 39% growth rate could deteriorate rapidly with limited transition time.
With 70% of AUM denominated in non-U.S. currencies — above the 60% threshold that triggers a hard block — a regional macroeconomic shock could produce idiosyncratic AUM outflows that no amount of quality or momentum can offset.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if non-U.S. AUM concentration falls below 60% of total AUM through geographic diversification for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe same geographic tilt that creates concentration risk also underlies the 39% revenue growth and industry-leader ranking; if non-U.S. markets continue to outperform, the geographic concentration may prove a tailwind rather than a liability.
Despite a favorable technical risk/reward to the near-term resistance target, the stock trades approximately 27.6% above analyst consensus price targets; this divergence suggests either a pending analyst upgrade cycle or a stock that has outrun fundamental valuation support.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if analyst consensus price targets are revised upward such that consensus implies positive upside from current levels for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe strong momentum profile — golden cross, above all moving averages, 2x average volume on the up move — and 3 consecutive earnings beats may be driving a legitimate fundamental re-rating that analysts have not yet captured; if consensus upgrades follow, the gap could close from the target side rather than through price deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 107%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 231% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 3.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $149,010,161 (4.628% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:4.63%=EXTREME
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.74
Upside
-22.6%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.30>1.3, MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.5 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:4.63%=EXTREME, FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.2, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 2.5, Technical at 4.4, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Cash Generative Franchise
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Geographic Concentration Cliff Risk
Trip ifNon-U.S. AUM concentration falls below 60% of total AUM for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Consensus Substantially Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst consensus upside rises above 0% from current -27.6% for 2 consecutive quarters.