Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸Attractively valued
ZVRA · Why this verdict
Why Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Zevra Therapeutics combines a deep-value margin of safety and elite quality metrics with a consistent earnings-beat streak, though bearish insider selling and elevated short interest temper the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine flags a 54% margin of safety and extreme undervaluation for Zevra, alongside a high overall score of 7.2/10, suggesting the market price sits well below intrinsic value. Engine summary | The margin of safety should compress as the price converges with fair value or re-rates meaningfully higher. | — |
| CounterBuy confidence is itself marked as needing validation, with an analyst-disagreement flag showing the target and technical view diverge by 1.7x, so the deep-value read may not be fully trustworthy. | ||
Zevra shows elite quality metrics — ROE near 101%, a Rule of 40 score of 99, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — reflecting a business that has compounded strong returns and growth. Quality breakdown | Return on equity and the Rule of 40 score should remain elevated, well above typical industry levels, if the quality thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same data flags an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at only 21% of net income, meaning reported profitability may not be converting cleanly into cash. | ||
Zevra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise near 96%, and technicals show a bullish breakout above all moving averages. Bull case | The beat streak should continue, with the company beating in 3 or more of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high, only 4.1% away, and short interest sits at 11%, so much of the earnings-beat optimism may already be priced in. | ||
Recent insider activity is net bearish, with $458,576 in net selling over 90 days and a bearish signal, compounding the 11% short interest already flagged as a key risk. Insider | The insider signal should shift back to neutral or bullish, and net insider selling should decline, if the bearish positioning reverses. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe insider sales are described as modest, only 0.055% of market cap, so the signal may be noise rather than a meaningful read on management's view of the stock. | ||
The engine flags a 54% margin of safety and extreme undervaluation for Zevra, alongside a high overall score of 7.2/10, suggesting the market price sits well below intrinsic value.
—Engine summary
- Expectation
- The margin of safety should compress as the price converges with fair value or re-rates meaningfully higher.
CounterBuy confidence is itself marked as needing validation, with an analyst-disagreement flag showing the target and technical view diverge by 1.7x, so the deep-value read may not be fully trustworthy.
Zevra shows elite quality metrics — ROE near 101%, a Rule of 40 score of 99, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — reflecting a business that has compounded strong returns and growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and the Rule of 40 score should remain elevated, well above typical industry levels, if the quality thesis holds.
CounterThe same data flags an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at only 21% of net income, meaning reported profitability may not be converting cleanly into cash.
Zevra has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise near 96%, and technicals show a bullish breakout above all moving averages.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue, with the company beating in 3 or more of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high, only 4.1% away, and short interest sits at 11%, so much of the earnings-beat optimism may already be priced in.
Recent insider activity is net bearish, with $458,576 in net selling over 90 days and a bearish signal, compounding the 11% short interest already flagged as a key risk.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back to neutral or bullish, and net insider selling should decline, if the bearish positioning reverses.
CounterThe insider sales are described as modest, only 0.055% of market cap, so the signal may be noise rather than a meaningful read on management's view of the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 1.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 101%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 78% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 123%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Share-count fallback (no $ value): net -36,351.0 shares
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
8.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 9.9 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.90
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Above max pain $9
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.3 < 4.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:8.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Healthcare:2/10
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
8.24
Upside
+93.8%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 8.24.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Peer rank at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Catalyst at 6.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.24 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Margin Of Safety
Trip ifMargin of safety compresses below 20% from the current 54%.
- P2Elite Quality Compounder Metrics
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 10% from the current 21%.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Momentum
Trip ifMiss count rises to 2 or more out of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Insider Selling High Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% from the current 11%.