Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 2.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 4.88
ZION · Why this verdict
Why Zions Bancorporation N.A. (ZION) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Zions has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter beating the $1.43 estimate at $1.54 — and the average positive surprise of 11% reflects disciplined credit quality and net interest margin management through a dynamic rate environment. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next 4 quarters, and average positive surprise stays above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4-quarter beat streak in a regional bank may reflect analysts consistently underestimating net interest income; if rate expectations shift or credit quality deteriorates, the beat streak could end abruptly. | ||
Zions operates with 77% of its banking exposure concentrated in Utah, Idaho, Texas, and California — a level the risk framework classifies as a cliff, meaning a regional economic shock in those states would have a near-total impact on the loan book with no geographic diversification to cushion losses. Bear case | Geographic concentration in the top 4 states declines below 65% within 18 months as the bank expands into additional markets. | →Stable |
| CounterTexas and Utah have been among the fastest-growing US state economies over the past decade; the geographic concentration may be a feature rather than a bug if these economies outperform the national average. | ||
Zions trades at $66.27 against a resistance price target of $66.63 — effectively at the analyst ceiling — producing a near-zero reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12 and leaving the stock vulnerable to any negative news with only 0.5% upside buffer. Targets | Analyst consensus price target rises above $75, exceeding the current price by more than 13%, providing renewed upside potential for additional accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum indicators (RSI 65, golden cross setup, rising on-balance volume) suggest technical buying pressure is more powerful than the analyst target ceiling; the stock may temporarily trade through resistance. | ||
Zions posts net margins of 28% and earnings growth that places it above 75% of its banking peers, with a return on equity of 4.7% — generating superior profitability metrics relative to regional banking peers on a price-to-earnings basis of 9.9x forward. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 20% over the next 4 quarters as the bank maintains its interest rate positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterA return on assets of only 0.7% is below the 1.0% threshold typical of well-managed banks; if the bank needs to increase loan loss provisions due to regional economic stress, net margins could compress quickly. | ||
Zions has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter beating the $1.43 estimate at $1.54 — and the average positive surprise of 11% reflects disciplined credit quality and net interest margin management through a dynamic rate environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next 4 quarters, and average positive surprise stays above 5%.
CounterA 4-quarter beat streak in a regional bank may reflect analysts consistently underestimating net interest income; if rate expectations shift or credit quality deteriorates, the beat streak could end abruptly.
Zions operates with 77% of its banking exposure concentrated in Utah, Idaho, Texas, and California — a level the risk framework classifies as a cliff, meaning a regional economic shock in those states would have a near-total impact on the loan book with no geographic diversification to cushion losses.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Geographic concentration in the top 4 states declines below 65% within 18 months as the bank expands into additional markets.
CounterTexas and Utah have been among the fastest-growing US state economies over the past decade; the geographic concentration may be a feature rather than a bug if these economies outperform the national average.
Zions trades at $66.27 against a resistance price target of $66.63 — effectively at the analyst ceiling — producing a near-zero reward-to-risk ratio of 0.12 and leaving the stock vulnerable to any negative news with only 0.5% upside buffer.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $75, exceeding the current price by more than 13%, providing renewed upside potential for additional accumulation.
CounterStrong momentum indicators (RSI 65, golden cross setup, rising on-balance volume) suggest technical buying pressure is more powerful than the analyst target ceiling; the stock may temporarily trade through resistance.
Zions posts net margins of 28% and earnings growth that places it above 75% of its banking peers, with a return on equity of 4.7% — generating superior profitability metrics relative to regional banking peers on a price-to-earnings basis of 9.9x forward.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 20% over the next 4 quarters as the bank maintains its interest rate positioning.
CounterA return on assets of only 0.7% is below the 1.0% threshold typical of well-managed banks; if the bank needs to increase loan loss provisions due to regional economic stress, net margins could compress quickly.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Zions Bancorporation has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 11% and strong growth metrics, but a hard geographic concentration in 4 states — representing 77% of exposure — and a stock price that has already exceeded its analyst target create significant structural and timing risks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.6 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 5.5 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=2)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $297,690 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 1.6 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.76
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 259.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $69.35 has reached target $69.83. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.71
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Sentiment at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Geographic Concentration 77pct
Trip ifLoan loss provision increases by more than 50% above the prior-year quarter for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling regional credit deterioration.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Stock Exceeded Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $58, falling more than 12% below the current resistance target of $66.63.
- P4Strong Net Interest Margin Growth
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, declining more than 10 percentage points from the current 28% level.