Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
- ▸Attractively valued
ZBH · Why this verdict
Why Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Zimmer Biomet has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent beat of 12.2% against the $1.86 estimate — demonstrating consistent operational execution in the orthopedic device market. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining an average positive surprise above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive beats may set a high bar for future quarters; a single miss could reset sentiment sharply, especially given the already-narrow analyst target gap. | ||
The company scores a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and converts 137% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds accounting profit — a durable sign of financial health. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 12 months, and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income. | →Stable |
| CounterA 137% free-cash-flow conversion rate may reflect timing differences or working capital benefits that normalize over time, and the low return on assets of 2.7% signals limited capital efficiency despite strong cash flows. | ||
With the current price at $88.26 and the analyst target at $88.83, the stock has essentially reached consensus fair value, leaving only 0.6% upside and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.11. Targets | Analyst consensus price target rises above $100, exceeding the current target by more than 12%, providing renewed upside potential. | →Stable |
| CounterAt analyst-target parity, the stock offers no margin of safety; any negative development — whether from a supplier disruption or guidance cut — could cause a meaningful decline with limited upside buffer. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping downward at -2.1% per 30 days and volume distribution indicating institutional selling — even though MACD has recently improved and RSI sits at 64. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope returns to flat or positive within 6 months, and price closes above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive days. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross with confirmed downward MA slope and falling on-balance volume suggests sustained institutional distribution; the improving MACD may be a short-term bounce within a longer decline. | ||
Zimmer Biomet has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent beat of 12.2% against the $1.86 estimate — demonstrating consistent operational execution in the orthopedic device market.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining an average positive surprise above 3%.
CounterFour consecutive beats may set a high bar for future quarters; a single miss could reset sentiment sharply, especially given the already-narrow analyst target gap.
The company scores a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and converts 137% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds accounting profit — a durable sign of financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 12 months, and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income.
CounterA 137% free-cash-flow conversion rate may reflect timing differences or working capital benefits that normalize over time, and the low return on assets of 2.7% signals limited capital efficiency despite strong cash flows.
With the current price at $88.26 and the analyst target at $88.83, the stock has essentially reached consensus fair value, leaving only 0.6% upside and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.11.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $100, exceeding the current target by more than 12%, providing renewed upside potential.
CounterAt analyst-target parity, the stock offers no margin of safety; any negative development — whether from a supplier disruption or guidance cut — could cause a meaningful decline with limited upside buffer.
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping downward at -2.1% per 30 days and volume distribution indicating institutional selling — even though MACD has recently improved and RSI sits at 64.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope returns to flat or positive within 6 months, and price closes above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive days.
CounterA death cross with confirmed downward MA slope and falling on-balance volume suggests sustained institutional distribution; the improving MACD may be a short-term bounce within a longer decline.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Zimmer Biomet has achieved a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and a maximum Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, yet trades at a death-cross technical setup with almost no gap to its analyst price target, making the risk-reward unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 137% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 22 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $413,216 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 110.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.26
Upside
+1.6%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Momentum at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.9, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Peer rank at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.26 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Maximum Piotroski Quality Score
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion drops below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Exhausted
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $80, falling more than 10% below the current $88.83.
- P4Death Cross Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $83, declining more than 6% from the current $88.26, while the 200-day MA slope remains below -1% per 30 days.