Value
6.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
XERS · Why this verdict
Why Xeris Biopharma Holdings (XERS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Xeris Biopharma combines 38% revenue growth and a Rule-of-40 pass with an overbought, late-cycle momentum setup (RSI 89) and value-trap warning signs — 19.9x leverage and modest insider selling — that the engine flags as risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Xeris Biopharma shows a strong growth profile and positive price momentum, per the engine's bull case. Bull case | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY and momentum score should hold above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the growth and momentum are durable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum-driven strength in a small specialty-pharma name can reverse sharply once the current growth phase is priced in. | ||
Xeris carries a steep leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.9x, contributing to 2 of 5 value-trap signals alongside material insider selling. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from 19.9x over the next 12 months if the leverage risk is set to ease. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSpecialty pharma companies often carry high nominal debt-to-equity ratios due to low equity bases from historical losses, which can overstate true balance-sheet risk. | ||
Xeris is overbought with an RSI of 89 while its 200-day moving average slope has gone flat-to-negative, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk. Momentum breakdown | RSI should ease back toward the 40-60 range within the next month without the moving-average slope turning meaningfully negative. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock recovering from a death cross with improving MACD can stay overbought for an extended period as the recovery trend strengthens. | ||
Xeris shows excellent cash conversion at 351% of net income and a passing Rule of 40 score of 52, supporting the strong-quality read. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should stay above 40 over the next 12 months if the cash-conversion strength persists. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 351% FCF-to-net-income ratio can be a one-period artifact of working-capital timing rather than a repeatable pattern. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Xeris stock over the last 90 days, contributing to the engine's bearish insider signal. Insider breakdown | Insider transactions should turn net neutral or positive over the next 90 days if the selling was routine rather than a bearish signal. | →Stable |
| CounterAt $607,036 and 0.042% of market cap, the insider selling is modest enough that it may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view. | ||
Xeris Biopharma shows a strong growth profile and positive price momentum, per the engine's bull case.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY and momentum score should hold above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the growth and momentum are durable.
CounterMomentum-driven strength in a small specialty-pharma name can reverse sharply once the current growth phase is priced in.
Xeris carries a steep leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.9x, contributing to 2 of 5 value-trap signals alongside material insider selling.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from 19.9x over the next 12 months if the leverage risk is set to ease.
CounterSpecialty pharma companies often carry high nominal debt-to-equity ratios due to low equity bases from historical losses, which can overstate true balance-sheet risk.
Xeris is overbought with an RSI of 89 while its 200-day moving average slope has gone flat-to-negative, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should ease back toward the 40-60 range within the next month without the moving-average slope turning meaningfully negative.
CounterA stock recovering from a death cross with improving MACD can stay overbought for an extended period as the recovery trend strengthens.
Xeris shows excellent cash conversion at 351% of net income and a passing Rule of 40 score of 52, supporting the strong-quality read.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should stay above 40 over the next 12 months if the cash-conversion strength persists.
CounterA 351% FCF-to-net-income ratio can be a one-period artifact of working-capital timing rather than a repeatable pattern.
Insiders have been net sellers of Xeris stock over the last 90 days, contributing to the engine's bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn net neutral or positive over the next 90 days if the selling was routine rather than a bearish signal.
CounterAt $607,036 and 0.042% of market cap, the insider selling is modest enough that it may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 16%, FCF yield 3.6%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 44 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 1.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,996,570 (0.138% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 2.6 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.50
- ▸High IV: 114%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.03
Upside
+23.3%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Sentiment at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Positive Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 38%, ending the strong-growth trend.
- P2Elevated Leverage Value Trap Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 5.0x from the current 19.9x, resolving the leverage penalty and value-trap concern.
- P3Overbought Late Cycle Distribution RiskTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 while price declines by more than 10%, confirming the late-cycle distribution risk played out.
- P4Elite Cash Conversion Rule Of 40 Pass
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40 from the current 52, ending the pass on that quality bar.
- P5Modest Insider Selling Bearish Tilt
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $2,000,000 in net value over the next 90 days, escalating beyond the current modest level.