Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
- ▸Attractively valued
WSFS · Why this verdict
Why WSFS Financial (WSFS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A concentrated commercial loan and lease portfolio represents a high-severity single-category credit risk that could result in outsized losses if commercial real estate or business credit conditions deteriorate. Bear case | Loan loss provisions remain below 0.5% of total loans and non-performing loan ratios stay below 1.5% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCommercial lending concentration is the core business model for a regional bank and reflects expertise rather than recklessness; credit quality metrics are currently sound. | ||
WSFS has beaten analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of 12.97%, demonstrating reliable execution above consensus expectations. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise remaining above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe four-beat streak may reflect conservative estimate-setting by a lightly covered analyst base rather than genuine operational outperformance. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2x combined with a PEG ratio of 0.24 indicates the stock is attractively priced relative to its growth rate for a regional bank. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings ratio stays below 14x while earnings growth sustains above 8% annually, preserving valuation appeal. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank valuations can compress rapidly if loan loss provisions rise on commercial credit deterioration, making the current multiple misleadingly cheap. | ||
The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average with a golden cross, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume, indicating broad-based buying pressure across time horizons. Chart pattern detection | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and momentum score stays above 6.0 over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is within 4.8% of the analyst price target with limited upside remaining, and strong momentum into an exhausted target frequently leads to mean reversion. | ||
A concentrated commercial loan and lease portfolio represents a high-severity single-category credit risk that could result in outsized losses if commercial real estate or business credit conditions deteriorate.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Loan loss provisions remain below 0.5% of total loans and non-performing loan ratios stay below 1.5% over the next 12 months.
CounterCommercial lending concentration is the core business model for a regional bank and reflects expertise rather than recklessness; credit quality metrics are currently sound.
WSFS has beaten analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of 12.97%, demonstrating reliable execution above consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterThe four-beat streak may reflect conservative estimate-setting by a lightly covered analyst base rather than genuine operational outperformance.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2x combined with a PEG ratio of 0.24 indicates the stock is attractively priced relative to its growth rate for a regional bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings ratio stays below 14x while earnings growth sustains above 8% annually, preserving valuation appeal.
CounterRegional bank valuations can compress rapidly if loan loss provisions rise on commercial credit deterioration, making the current multiple misleadingly cheap.
The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average with a golden cross, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume, indicating broad-based buying pressure across time horizons.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and momentum score stays above 6.0 over the next 6 months.
CounterThe stock is within 4.8% of the analyst price target with limited upside remaining, and strong momentum into an exhausted target frequently leads to mean reversion.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WSFS Financial has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 13% above estimates, trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2x, and carries strong momentum — but concentration risks in its commercial loan portfolio and regulatory exposure to a single oversight body cap the upside case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.9 |
| OBV | 9.3 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,850,129 (0.121% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 92.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.97
Upside
-8.5%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.2; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.7, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifAverage quarterly earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 16x, exceeding the current 11.2x by more than 40%.
- P3Commercial Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifNon-performing loan ratio rises above 2%, more than doubling from a healthy baseline, signaling commercial credit stress.
- P4Technical Momentum Breadth
Trip ifPrice drops below $71.23, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 4% below the current $74.17.