Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
WSBC · Why this verdict
Why WesBanco (WSBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WesBanco has delivered approximately 108% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest growth rate among regional bank peers in the screening universe, driven by expansion and integration that has materially increased earning power. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth remains above 20% year-over-year over the next 12 months as the benefits of the bank's recent growth initiatives are fully recognized in results. | →Stable |
| Counter108% earnings growth from an expansion likely reflects a low prior-year base; sustaining this rate on a larger base is substantially harder, and estimates may decline as the comparison period normalizes. | ||
Commercial real estate loans represent approximately 57% of the total loan portfolio, creating significant credit concentration risk, as commercial real estate is widely viewed as the most vulnerable category in the regional banking sector under stress scenarios. Bear case | Commercial real estate concentration decreases to below 50% of the loan portfolio over 12 months as new loan originations diversify toward other categories. | →Stable |
| CounterCommercial real estate lending is often a core competency for community and regional banks, and a well-underwritten portfolio with conservative loan-to-value ratios can sustain through economic cycles without material credit deterioration. | ||
WesBanco is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross formation, trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 61, MACD bullish, and volume accumulation showing a rising on-balance volume reading. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 50 over the next 12 months, confirming the breakout trend is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is trading near its 52-week high and has negative remaining upside to the analyst target, meaning the breakout has already been largely priced in by market participants. | ||
WesBanco trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 9.1x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.43, offering valuation support that compares favorably to the regional banking peer group given the company's above-average growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Valuation multiple expands over 12 months as sustained earnings growth is recognized, with the stock trading at a forward multiple above 11x. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank valuations are sensitive to interest rate expectations and credit quality; any deterioration in net interest margins or an increase in non-performing loans could compress the multiple regardless of growth rate. | ||
WesBanco has delivered approximately 108% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest growth rate among regional bank peers in the screening universe, driven by expansion and integration that has materially increased earning power.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth remains above 20% year-over-year over the next 12 months as the benefits of the bank's recent growth initiatives are fully recognized in results.
Counter108% earnings growth from an expansion likely reflects a low prior-year base; sustaining this rate on a larger base is substantially harder, and estimates may decline as the comparison period normalizes.
Commercial real estate loans represent approximately 57% of the total loan portfolio, creating significant credit concentration risk, as commercial real estate is widely viewed as the most vulnerable category in the regional banking sector under stress scenarios.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate concentration decreases to below 50% of the loan portfolio over 12 months as new loan originations diversify toward other categories.
CounterCommercial real estate lending is often a core competency for community and regional banks, and a well-underwritten portfolio with conservative loan-to-value ratios can sustain through economic cycles without material credit deterioration.
WesBanco is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross formation, trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 61, MACD bullish, and volume accumulation showing a rising on-balance volume reading.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 50 over the next 12 months, confirming the breakout trend is durable.
CounterThe stock is trading near its 52-week high and has negative remaining upside to the analyst target, meaning the breakout has already been largely priced in by market participants.
WesBanco trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 9.1x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.43, offering valuation support that compares favorably to the regional banking peer group given the company's above-average growth trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation multiple expands over 12 months as sustained earnings growth is recognized, with the stock trading at a forward multiple above 11x.
CounterRegional bank valuations are sensitive to interest rate expectations and credit quality; any deterioration in net interest margins or an increase in non-performing loans could compress the multiple regardless of growth rate.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WesBanco is a fast-growing regional bank with 108% year-over-year earnings growth, strong momentum at a breakout above all moving averages, and a compelling valuation at a forward price-to-earnings ratio near 9x, though the analyst target has been reached with negative remaining upside and commercial real estate loan concentration limits conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 108% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $119,453 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 8.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.82
Upside
-12.1%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 18d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 7.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter, signaling the exceptional growth rate has materially decelerated.
- P2Strong Breakout Momentum
Trip ifStock price drops below $34, more than 5% below the current $36.08, reaching the defined stop-loss level near $34.34.
- P3Attractive Valuation Metrics
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 13x as earnings estimates decline, indicating the valuation support has eroded.
- P4Commercial Real Estate Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate non-performing loans rise above 3% of the total commercial real estate portfolio, signaling credit stress is materializing.