Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
- ▸Attractively valued
WLDN · Why this verdict
Why Willdan Group (WLDN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willdan Group has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 68%, supporting a favorable risk-reward profile, though near-term momentum weakness and a technical death cross require caution before adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Willdan has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of its most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 68%, suggesting the company is consistently delivering results above Street expectations. Earnings | Continued earnings beats over the next 12 months, with positive quarterly surprise percentages maintaining an average above 20%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe high average surprise of 68% may reflect analysts setting conservatively low bars; a reversion to normal expectations could expose underlying earnings pressure. | ||
Analyst consensus implies roughly 22% upside to the current price near $95.51, providing a meaningful target gap that could attract buyers if momentum conditions improve. Targets | Price approaches the analyst target near $116.88 over 12 months as business fundamentals are recognized. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterWith only a 22% upside and the stock sitting below its 200-day moving average, analysts may revise targets downward if earnings growth decelerates. | ||
Willdan scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health assessment, indicating broad-based fundamental strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score remains at 7 or above, reflecting sustained financial discipline and positive operating trends. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical health; it does not prevent forward deterioration if contract revenues slow in the engineering and construction industry. | ||
Price momentum is weak, with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a technical death cross in place, signaling that near-term buyers are cautious and downside risk is elevated. Warnings | Momentum improves over 12 months as price reclaims and sustains above the 200-day moving average, with RSI trending above 50 on a sustained basis. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses frequently resolve without a sustained decline; the shallow -2.2% gap below the 200-day average may reverse quickly on any positive catalyst. | ||
Willdan has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of its most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 68%, suggesting the company is consistently delivering results above Street expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued earnings beats over the next 12 months, with positive quarterly surprise percentages maintaining an average above 20%.
CounterThe high average surprise of 68% may reflect analysts setting conservatively low bars; a reversion to normal expectations could expose underlying earnings pressure.
Analyst consensus implies roughly 22% upside to the current price near $95.51, providing a meaningful target gap that could attract buyers if momentum conditions improve.
Tripped→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price approaches the analyst target near $116.88 over 12 months as business fundamentals are recognized.
CounterWith only a 22% upside and the stock sitting below its 200-day moving average, analysts may revise targets downward if earnings growth decelerates.
Willdan scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health assessment, indicating broad-based fundamental strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score remains at 7 or above, reflecting sustained financial discipline and positive operating trends.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical health; it does not prevent forward deterioration if contract revenues slow in the engineering and construction industry.
Price momentum is weak, with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a technical death cross in place, signaling that near-term buyers are cautious and downside risk is elevated.
Tripped→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Momentum improves over 12 months as price reclaims and sustains above the 200-day moving average, with RSI trending above 50 on a sustained basis.
CounterDeath crosses frequently resolve without a sustained decline; the shallow -2.2% gap below the 200-day average may reverse quickly on any positive catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.1 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 77% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 33% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.53
Upside
+38.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 1.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 1.7, Momentum at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside Target GapTripped
Trip ifAnalyst price target falls below $100, reducing upside to less than 5% from current levels.
- P3Strong Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any subsequent financial health assessment.
- P4Momentum Death Cross HeadwindTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $85, more than 11% below the current $95.51, confirming trend deterioration.