Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
WGO · Why this verdict
Why Winnebago Industries (WGO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Winnebago's quality score of 3.7 falls below the engine's minimum floor of 4.0, triggering an explicit exit recommendation despite the stock's otherwise low valuation multiples. Warnings | The quality score should recover to 4.0 or above over the next 12 months for the position to be worth re-adding. | →Stable |
| CounterA quality score compressed just slightly below a hard floor may reflect a temporary cyclical trough in the RV industry rather than a permanent deterioration in business fundamentals. | ||
Winnebago is flagged with declining revenue of -10%, reflecting a cyclical downturn in recreational vehicle demand that undercuts the reason to hold the stock at current levels. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months as the RV replacement cycle normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same data shows excellent cash conversion of 427% FCF/NI, suggesting the company can preserve capital and balance-sheet strength through the downturn even if revenue keeps contracting. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with a moving-average slope of -1.5% per 30 days, which the data describes as a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average with a positive moving-average slope over the next 12 months to reverse the confirmed downtrend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own setup rationale notes the MACD is improving and RSI sits at 66, suggesting the downtrend may already be losing momentum ahead of a recovery. | ||
The engine's risk-reward gate failed with an asymmetry ratio of only 0.65, as the 9.1% upside to the take-profit target is well below the 14.0% downside to the stop-loss. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5 before the position is worth adding to again. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest of 10% creates the possibility of a short-covering rally that could close the upside gap faster than the downside risk implied by the current ratio. | ||
Winnebago's quality score of 3.7 falls below the engine's minimum floor of 4.0, triggering an explicit exit recommendation despite the stock's otherwise low valuation multiples.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score should recover to 4.0 or above over the next 12 months for the position to be worth re-adding.
CounterA quality score compressed just slightly below a hard floor may reflect a temporary cyclical trough in the RV industry rather than a permanent deterioration in business fundamentals.
Winnebago is flagged with declining revenue of -10%, reflecting a cyclical downturn in recreational vehicle demand that undercuts the reason to hold the stock at current levels.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months as the RV replacement cycle normalizes.
CounterThe same data shows excellent cash conversion of 427% FCF/NI, suggesting the company can preserve capital and balance-sheet strength through the downturn even if revenue keeps contracting.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with a moving-average slope of -1.5% per 30 days, which the data describes as a confirmed downtrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average with a positive moving-average slope over the next 12 months to reverse the confirmed downtrend.
CounterThe engine's own setup rationale notes the MACD is improving and RSI sits at 66, suggesting the downtrend may already be losing momentum ahead of a recovery.
The engine's risk-reward gate failed with an asymmetry ratio of only 0.65, as the 9.1% upside to the take-profit target is well below the 14.0% downside to the stop-loss.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5 before the position is worth adding to again.
CounterHigh short interest of 10% creates the possibility of a short-covering rally that could close the upside gap faster than the downside risk implied by the current ratio.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Winnebago's quality score has breached the engine's minimum floor amid declining revenue and a confirmed technical downtrend, and an unfavorable risk-reward setup reinforces the exit signal despite a statistically cheap valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 427% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 6.3 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 449.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:108d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.65
Upside
+9.1%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Sentiment at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 2.0, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Score Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.7, invalidating the exit signal.
- P2Cyclical Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY, reversing the current -10% decline.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifThe 30-day moving-average slope rises above 0% (turns positive), reversing the confirmed downtrend.
- P4Unfavorable Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.65, restoring a favorable risk-reward reading.