Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
WGO · Why this verdict
Why Winnebago Industries (WGO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Winnebago has strong cash conversion and a 4.7% dividend yield and beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but revenue is declining about 17%, quality is below the minimum and the price is only 1.1% below the $30.94 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is excellent at 399% of net income, which supports the dividend and balance sheet even as GAAP margins are thin. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 150% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is flattered by working-capital release as inventory shrinks in a downturn and will fade when volumes recover. | ||
Revenue is declining about 17%, with quarterly revenue of $645.1M for the period ended 2026-08-29 versus $777.3M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes and exceeds the $648M next-quarter estimate over the coming year. | →Stable |
| CounterRecreational vehicle demand is cyclical, and a lower base after a 17% decline makes a rebound easier if rates fall. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.49 against $0.47 in the latest quarter, though the June 2026 quarter missed by 14.7%. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 quarters, with the next report in 47 days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest beat was only 5.3%, and the company had four misses in five quarters through late 2024, so beats may be narrow. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.9% per 30 days, and the RSI of 79 marks an overbought bear rally in a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 months as the rally holds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest the recovery may be real rather than a bear rally. | ||
The dividend yields 4.7% with a safety score of 5.8/10, giving holders income while waiting for a cycle recovery. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety stays above 5.0 so the payout is maintained over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith declining revenue and thin margins, a mid-range safety score leaves the payout exposed if the downturn deepens. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 399% of net income, which supports the dividend and balance sheet even as GAAP margins are thin.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 150% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is flattered by working-capital release as inventory shrinks in a downturn and will fade when volumes recover.
Revenue is declining about 17%, with quarterly revenue of $645.1M for the period ended 2026-08-29 versus $777.3M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes and exceeds the $648M next-quarter estimate over the coming year.
CounterRecreational vehicle demand is cyclical, and a lower base after a 17% decline makes a rebound easier if rates fall.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.49 against $0.47 in the latest quarter, though the June 2026 quarter missed by 14.7%.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 quarters, with the next report in 47 days.
CounterThe latest beat was only 5.3%, and the company had four misses in five quarters through late 2024, so beats may be narrow.
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.9% per 30 days, and the RSI of 79 marks an overbought bear rally in a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 months as the rally holds.
CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest the recovery may be real rather than a bear rally.
The dividend yields 4.7% with a safety score of 5.8/10, giving holders income while waiting for a cycle recovery.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety stays above 5.0 so the payout is maintained over the next 12 months.
CounterWith declining revenue and thin margins, a mid-range safety score leaves the payout exposed if the downturn deepens.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 399% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -17%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $511,658 (0.056% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 4.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.13
Upside
-2.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Sentiment at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of -0.13.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.7, Value at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 1.8, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Cycle
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $750M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 399%.
- P3Mostly Beating Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Downtrend Bear Rally
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope rises above 0% per 30 days from the current -5.9%.
- P5Dividend Yield Support
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.8.