Value
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
WF · Why this verdict
Why Woori Financial Group (WF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Woori trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2x with a PEG of 0.21 and ranks among the most attractively valued names in the regional banking peer group, offering a 46% margin of safety relative to the analyst consensus price target of $80.38. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $72, more than 11% above the current $64.62, as the valuation gap narrows over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterKorean regional banks often trade at persistent discounts to western peers due to governance concerns, lower liquidity, and currency risk; the low multiple may reflect structural rather than temporary undervaluation. | ||
Woori's momentum score of 6.6 is supported by bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and a price above the 200-day moving average — all indicators of sustained buying pressure over the recent period. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score remains above 5.5 and on-balance volume continues rising for at least 30 consecutive trading days over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical setup is described as having mixed signals with no clear chart pattern; momentum may be fragile and could reverse on any macro catalyst affecting emerging market financials. | ||
Woori has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the most recent 4 quarters, including a -17% miss and a -20% miss, suggesting management is either managing expectations poorly or facing genuine earnings headwinds from the operating environment. Earnings | Earnings beat rate improves to at least 3 of 4 over the next 4 reported quarters, and surprise magnitude stays above -5% in any single miss quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two beat quarters were substantial, including a 47% positive surprise, indicating the business can deliver strong results — the misses may reflect one-time items rather than structural deterioration. | ||
A Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 indicates strong financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, suggesting the balance sheet is sound despite modest return on equity. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 7 or higher over the next 2 annual reporting periods, confirming sustained financial health across all scoring dimensions. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores in banking often lag deteriorating credit quality because the model scores year-over-year changes; a rising non-performing loan ratio could not be captured until it shows up in financial statement changes. | ||
Woori trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2x with a PEG of 0.21 and ranks among the most attractively valued names in the regional banking peer group, offering a 46% margin of safety relative to the analyst consensus price target of $80.38.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $72, more than 11% above the current $64.62, as the valuation gap narrows over the next 12 months.
CounterKorean regional banks often trade at persistent discounts to western peers due to governance concerns, lower liquidity, and currency risk; the low multiple may reflect structural rather than temporary undervaluation.
Woori's momentum score of 6.6 is supported by bullish MACD, rising on-balance volume, and a price above the 200-day moving average — all indicators of sustained buying pressure over the recent period.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score remains above 5.5 and on-balance volume continues rising for at least 30 consecutive trading days over the next 6 months.
CounterThe technical setup is described as having mixed signals with no clear chart pattern; momentum may be fragile and could reverse on any macro catalyst affecting emerging market financials.
Woori has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the most recent 4 quarters, including a -17% miss and a -20% miss, suggesting management is either managing expectations poorly or facing genuine earnings headwinds from the operating environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate improves to at least 3 of 4 over the next 4 reported quarters, and surprise magnitude stays above -5% in any single miss quarter.
CounterThe two beat quarters were substantial, including a 47% positive surprise, indicating the business can deliver strong results — the misses may reflect one-time items rather than structural deterioration.
A Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 indicates strong financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, suggesting the balance sheet is sound despite modest return on equity.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 7 or higher over the next 2 annual reporting periods, confirming sustained financial health across all scoring dimensions.
CounterPiotroski scores in banking often lag deteriorating credit quality because the model scores year-over-year changes; a rising non-performing loan ratio could not be captured until it shows up in financial statement changes.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Woori Financial Group trades at an extremely attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2x with 24% analyst upside, strong technical momentum, and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, but two recent consecutive earnings misses and a negative news modifier weigh on near-term confidence.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| beta | 9.6 |
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 472.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.68
Upside
+27.9%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 9.9; weakest: Catalyst at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.4, Technical at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Pe
Trip ifPrice falls below $55, more than 15% below the current $64.62, without analyst targets being revised lower by at least 10%.
- P2Strong Technical Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 and on-balance volume declines for more than 30 consecutive trading days.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings miss rate rises to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with at least 1 miss exceeding -15% surprise.
- P4High Piotroski Financial Strength
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 6 for at least 2 consecutive reported annual periods.