Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
WERN · Why this verdict
Why Werner Enterprises (WERN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Werner Enterprises faces a combination of negative price momentum, a quality score below the minimum acceptable threshold, and deeply negative upside versus current analyst targets, making the stock a candidate for position reduction rather than new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Werner's quality score of 2.0 out of 10 falls below the 4.0 minimum threshold required for investment consideration, driven by near-zero margins, cash-burning free cash flow, and the absence of a competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above 4.0 over 12 months, driven by improvement in operating margins from near-zero levels and conversion of negative free cash flow to positive. | →Stable |
| CounterTrucking is a capital-intensive, low-margin cyclical industry; quality scores this low during a freight downcycle may normalize significantly once volumes recover, without any structural improvement in the business. | ||
At a current price of $43.07, Werner trades 22.2% above analyst consensus price targets, meaning the stock would need to fall significantly before reaching fair value per analysts — an unusual and bearish configuration. Bear case | Analyst price targets are raised by at least 15% above the current price within 6 months to restore positive upside, or the stock pulls back below $38 to re-align with existing targets. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets in freight often lag cyclical turns; if freight rates recover more sharply than expected, targets could be raised quickly to reflect improved earnings power. | ||
With a momentum score of 3.5, falling on-balance volume, and the moving average slope negative, Werner's price trend is deteriorating — confirming that selling pressure exceeds buying interest across time frames. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 5.5 and on-balance volume begins trending upward for at least 30 consecutive trading days, signaling renewed buying interest. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWerner trades above the 200-day moving average despite negative momentum signals, suggesting the stock is consolidating rather than in outright decline; a stabilization in freight volumes could reverse the trend quickly. | ||
Werner has split results over the last 4 quarters — 2 beats and 2 misses — with the two misses being severe at -52% and -123% surprise, indicating highly unpredictable earnings in a difficult freight environment. Earnings | Earnings beat rate improves to at least 3 of 4 quarters and miss severity stays above -10% surprise in any single quarter over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a large positive surprise of 132%, suggesting the worst of the earnings volatility may be behind the company as freight conditions stabilize. | ||
Werner's quality score of 2.0 out of 10 falls below the 4.0 minimum threshold required for investment consideration, driven by near-zero margins, cash-burning free cash flow, and the absence of a competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 over 12 months, driven by improvement in operating margins from near-zero levels and conversion of negative free cash flow to positive.
CounterTrucking is a capital-intensive, low-margin cyclical industry; quality scores this low during a freight downcycle may normalize significantly once volumes recover, without any structural improvement in the business.
At a current price of $43.07, Werner trades 22.2% above analyst consensus price targets, meaning the stock would need to fall significantly before reaching fair value per analysts — an unusual and bearish configuration.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are raised by at least 15% above the current price within 6 months to restore positive upside, or the stock pulls back below $38 to re-align with existing targets.
CounterAnalyst targets in freight often lag cyclical turns; if freight rates recover more sharply than expected, targets could be raised quickly to reflect improved earnings power.
With a momentum score of 3.5, falling on-balance volume, and the moving average slope negative, Werner's price trend is deteriorating — confirming that selling pressure exceeds buying interest across time frames.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 5.5 and on-balance volume begins trending upward for at least 30 consecutive trading days, signaling renewed buying interest.
CounterWerner trades above the 200-day moving average despite negative momentum signals, suggesting the stock is consolidating rather than in outright decline; a stabilization in freight volumes could reverse the trend quickly.
Werner has split results over the last 4 quarters — 2 beats and 2 misses — with the two misses being severe at -52% and -123% surprise, indicating highly unpredictable earnings in a difficult freight environment.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate improves to at least 3 of 4 quarters and miss severity stays above -10% surprise in any single quarter over the next 12 months.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a large positive surprise of 132%, suggesting the worst of the earnings volatility may be behind the company as freight conditions stabilize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $40,987 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 2.7 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.60
- ▸High IV: 60%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.41
Upside
-17.2%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.4=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.41.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Value at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 2.0, Technical at 4.3, and Sentiment at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifOperating margin remains below 1% for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming no near-term quality recovery.
- P2Negative Price Upside Vs Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $48, more than 11% above the current $43.07, without analyst targets increasing by at least 10%.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 and on-balance volume declines for more than 40 consecutive trading days.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.