Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.38
WEC · Why this verdict
Why WEC Energy Group (WEC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WEC Energy Group benefits from strong price momentum and a consistent earnings beat record, but current pricing has consumed available upside and the reward-to-risk profile is unfavorable at today's levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WEC has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 5.3% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating management's ability to deliver above-consensus results. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with positive surprise percentages averaging above 2%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a sharp miss of nearly -30%, suggesting lumpy seasonal earnings that could recur and erode the beat streak. | ||
WEC trades above all key moving averages with rising on-balance volume and a bullish MACD, reflecting a technical breakout pattern that has historically preceded further price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI at 53 and the stock trading just 4.7% below its 52-week high mean momentum is mature, and any earnings disappointment could unwind the breakout quickly. | ||
The stock's current price of $114 sits above the resistance-based take-profit level of $113.19, producing negative upside of -0.7% versus 3.8% downside — a strongly unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio that blocks new entry. Targets | If the thesis is valid, price would need to pull back below $110 to restore positive asymmetry before a new position is justified. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities often sustain premium valuations for extended periods; investors may accept compressed returns in exchange for dividend stability at a 334% payout coverage. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income at -126%, flagged as a red flag in quality analysis, suggesting reported earnings materially overstate the cash actually generated by the business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves from -126% to at least 50% over the next 12 months as capital expenditure cycles normalize. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital-intensive regulated utilities routinely show negative free cash flow relative to net income due to large infrastructure spending programs; this may reflect growth investment rather than earnings quality deterioration. | ||
WEC has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 5.3% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating management's ability to deliver above-consensus results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with positive surprise percentages averaging above 2%.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a sharp miss of nearly -30%, suggesting lumpy seasonal earnings that could recur and erode the beat streak.
WEC trades above all key moving averages with rising on-balance volume and a bullish MACD, reflecting a technical breakout pattern that has historically preceded further price appreciation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months.
CounterRSI at 53 and the stock trading just 4.7% below its 52-week high mean momentum is mature, and any earnings disappointment could unwind the breakout quickly.
The stock's current price of $114 sits above the resistance-based take-profit level of $113.19, producing negative upside of -0.7% versus 3.8% downside — a strongly unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio that blocks new entry.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- If the thesis is valid, price would need to pull back below $110 to restore positive asymmetry before a new position is justified.
CounterRegulated utilities often sustain premium valuations for extended periods; investors may accept compressed returns in exchange for dividend stability at a 334% payout coverage.
Free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income at -126%, flagged as a red flag in quality analysis, suggesting reported earnings materially overstate the cash actually generated by the business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves from -126% to at least 50% over the next 12 months as capital expenditure cycles normalize.
CounterCapital-intensive regulated utilities routinely show negative free cash flow relative to net income due to large infrastructure spending programs; this may reflect growth investment rather than earnings quality deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -126% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $517,624 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.1 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 9 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:9d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-0.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 9d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Growth at 4.2, and Quality at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings surprise percentage falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Price Momentum Golden Cross
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
- P3Asymmetry Gate Failure
Trip ifPrice rises above $113.19 take-profit level without a corresponding analyst target increase of at least 5%.
- P4Free Cash Flow Quality Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income remains below -50% for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters.