Vistra (VST) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $3.23
- Estimate
- $2.43
- Surprise
- +33.0%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $6.35B
- Score today
- 6.5/10
Revenue source: yfinance_provisional (provisional — SEC XBRL not yet filed for this period).
How the report landed
Vistra (VST) beat the $2.43 estimate with adjusted EPS of $3.23 — a large 33.0% upside surprise.
Coverage in the report window
- Corning to Caterpillar: The AI ‘Picks and Shovels’ Trade Caves In — benzinga, 2026-11-10
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates VST Sell at 6.5/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +33.0% surprise compares with a -11.1% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-02-25.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
- Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%)
- Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5
- Consecutive earnings misses (2)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $130.24
- Price target
- $182.40
- Stop
- $121.12
- Upside to target
- +40.0%
- Reward-to-risk
- 2.7:1
The stock trades at 18.1× trailing but 14.2× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-10 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
VST at TrendMatrix's latest read
Utility earnings are regulatory outcomes on a lag — allowed-return and rate-case posture frame any quarter's print.
- Industry
- Utilities - Independent Power Producers
- Market cap
- $45.40B
- P/E (fwd)
- 14.2
- P/E (ttm)
- 18.1
- 52-week range
- $110.89–$196.80
- Off 52-week high
- 33.8%
- RSI (14)
- 36
- Volume vs avg
- 0.24×
- Score today
- 6.5/10