Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
VOD · Why this verdict
Why Vodafone Group (VOD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality metrics including return on equity, gross margin, and operating margin each score at or near zero, resulting in a quality score of 2.7 which is below the 4.0 minimum investment threshold, while the company has no identifiable competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 within the next 2 annual reporting periods, indicating recovery in fundamental profitability metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterLegacy European telecom operators often screen poorly on traditional quality metrics due to heavy infrastructure investment cycles; the Piotroski score of 7 suggests improving operational trends. | ||
Analyst forward earnings estimates have been cut by 22% over the past 30 days, and an active legal risk event has been flagged as a gate failure, together suggesting near-term earnings visibility is deteriorating and regulatory or litigation uncertainty is elevated. Catalyst breakdown | Analyst estimate revisions stabilize at 0% or better over the next 30 days, ending the recent estimate decline cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterEuropean telecom regulatory environments are well-understood; legal risks in this sector are often procedural rather than existential, and the 4-beat earnings history suggests delivery capability. | ||
The stock trades at a significant premium to analyst consensus price targets, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of minus 5.7 — the most unfavorable in this batch — meaning the technical setup implies far more downside than upside from current levels. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets rise by more than 25% above the current price of $15.00 within 12 months, restoring positive asymmetry. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for foreign-listed ADRs can reflect currency-adjusted stale estimates; improved sterling or euro exchange rates could shift the implied target in dollar terms. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a price trading above the 200-day moving average with a momentum score of 5.7 above the minimum threshold indicate that buyers are accumulating shares, providing a technical base despite fundamental concerns. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues rising and the stock stays above $14.00 per share over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation in a fundamentally weak telecom trading above analyst targets may reflect momentum-chasing behavior that reverses quickly when the next estimate cut lands. | ||
Quality metrics including return on equity, gross margin, and operating margin each score at or near zero, resulting in a quality score of 2.7 which is below the 4.0 minimum investment threshold, while the company has no identifiable competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within the next 2 annual reporting periods, indicating recovery in fundamental profitability metrics.
CounterLegacy European telecom operators often screen poorly on traditional quality metrics due to heavy infrastructure investment cycles; the Piotroski score of 7 suggests improving operational trends.
Analyst forward earnings estimates have been cut by 22% over the past 30 days, and an active legal risk event has been flagged as a gate failure, together suggesting near-term earnings visibility is deteriorating and regulatory or litigation uncertainty is elevated.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst estimate revisions stabilize at 0% or better over the next 30 days, ending the recent estimate decline cycle.
CounterEuropean telecom regulatory environments are well-understood; legal risks in this sector are often procedural rather than existential, and the 4-beat earnings history suggests delivery capability.
The stock trades at a significant premium to analyst consensus price targets, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of minus 5.7 — the most unfavorable in this batch — meaning the technical setup implies far more downside than upside from current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets rise by more than 25% above the current price of $15.00 within 12 months, restoring positive asymmetry.
CounterAnalyst targets for foreign-listed ADRs can reflect currency-adjusted stale estimates; improved sterling or euro exchange rates could shift the implied target in dollar terms.
Rising on-balance volume and a price trading above the 200-day moving average with a momentum score of 5.7 above the minimum threshold indicate that buyers are accumulating shares, providing a technical base despite fundamental concerns.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues rising and the stock stays above $14.00 per share over the next 6 months.
CounterVolume accumulation in a fundamentally weak telecom trading above analyst targets may reflect momentum-chasing behavior that reverses quickly when the next estimate cut lands.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vodafone Group shows an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 9.2x and technically trades near its 52-week high with rising on-balance volume, but quality scores fall below the minimum investment threshold, the stock trades significantly above its analyst consensus price target, active legal risk has been flagged, and analyst forward estimates have been cut by 22% in the past 30 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 8, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-21.9%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Estimates down -21.9% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:127d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.97
Upside
-14.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Value at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Quality at 2.7, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Quality Floor Weak Fundamentals
Trip ifQuality score falls below 2.0 in any reporting period, indicating further deterioration beyond the already-below-floor level.
- P2Estimate Cuts And Legal Risk
Trip ifAnalyst estimates decline by more than 30% over any rolling 30-day period, accelerating the revision cycle.
- P3Above Analyst Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $18.00, more than 20% above the current $15.00, widening the premium to analyst targets even further.
- P4Volume Accumulation Momentum Positive
Trip ifStock price drops below $13.50, more than 10% below the current $15.00, signaling breakdown of the technical accumulation base.