Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
VOD · Why this verdict
Why Vodafone Group (VOD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vodafone Group shows an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 9.2x and technically trades near its 52-week high with rising on-balance volume, but quality scores fall below the minimum investment threshold, the stock trades significantly above its analyst consensus price target, active legal risk has been flagged, and analyst forward estimates have been cut by 22% in the past 30 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality metrics including return on equity, gross margin, and operating margin each score at or near zero, resulting in a quality score of 2.7 which is below the 4.0 minimum investment threshold, while the company has no identifiable competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 within the next 2 annual reporting periods, indicating recovery in fundamental profitability metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterLegacy European telecom operators often screen poorly on traditional quality metrics due to heavy infrastructure investment cycles; the Piotroski score of 7 suggests improving operational trends. | ||
Analyst forward earnings estimates have been cut by 22% over the past 30 days, and an active legal risk event has been flagged as a gate failure, together suggesting near-term earnings visibility is deteriorating and regulatory or litigation uncertainty is elevated. Catalyst breakdown | Analyst estimate revisions stabilize at 0% or better over the next 30 days, ending the recent estimate decline cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterEuropean telecom regulatory environments are well-understood; legal risks in this sector are often procedural rather than existential, and the 4-beat earnings history suggests delivery capability. | ||
The stock trades at a significant premium to analyst consensus price targets, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of minus 5.7 — the most unfavorable in this batch — meaning the technical setup implies far more downside than upside from current levels. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets rise by more than 25% above the current price of $15.00 within 12 months, restoring positive asymmetry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets for foreign-listed ADRs can reflect currency-adjusted stale estimates; improved sterling or euro exchange rates could shift the implied target in dollar terms. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a price trading above the 200-day moving average with a momentum score of 5.7 above the minimum threshold indicate that buyers are accumulating shares, providing a technical base despite fundamental concerns. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues rising and the stock stays above $14.00 per share over the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume accumulation in a fundamentally weak telecom trading above analyst targets may reflect momentum-chasing behavior that reverses quickly when the next estimate cut lands. | ||
Quality metrics including return on equity, gross margin, and operating margin each score at or near zero, resulting in a quality score of 2.7 which is below the 4.0 minimum investment threshold, while the company has no identifiable competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within the next 2 annual reporting periods, indicating recovery in fundamental profitability metrics.
CounterLegacy European telecom operators often screen poorly on traditional quality metrics due to heavy infrastructure investment cycles; the Piotroski score of 7 suggests improving operational trends.
Analyst forward earnings estimates have been cut by 22% over the past 30 days, and an active legal risk event has been flagged as a gate failure, together suggesting near-term earnings visibility is deteriorating and regulatory or litigation uncertainty is elevated.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst estimate revisions stabilize at 0% or better over the next 30 days, ending the recent estimate decline cycle.
CounterEuropean telecom regulatory environments are well-understood; legal risks in this sector are often procedural rather than existential, and the 4-beat earnings history suggests delivery capability.
The stock trades at a significant premium to analyst consensus price targets, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of minus 5.7 — the most unfavorable in this batch — meaning the technical setup implies far more downside than upside from current levels.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets rise by more than 25% above the current price of $15.00 within 12 months, restoring positive asymmetry.
CounterAnalyst targets for foreign-listed ADRs can reflect currency-adjusted stale estimates; improved sterling or euro exchange rates could shift the implied target in dollar terms.
Rising on-balance volume and a price trading above the 200-day moving average with a momentum score of 5.7 above the minimum threshold indicate that buyers are accumulating shares, providing a technical base despite fundamental concerns.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues rising and the stock stays above $14.00 per share over the next 6 months.
CounterVolume accumulation in a fundamentally weak telecom trading above analyst targets may reflect momentum-chasing behavior that reverses quickly when the next estimate cut lands.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.4 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+25.5%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 100%
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 25.5% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:107d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.64
Upside
-24.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.64.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Catalyst at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Peer rank at 3.9, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Quality Floor Weak Fundamentals
Trip ifQuality score falls below 2.0 in any reporting period, indicating further deterioration beyond the already-below-floor level.
- P2Estimate Cuts And Legal Risk
Trip ifAnalyst estimates decline by more than 30% over any rolling 30-day period, accelerating the revision cycle.
- P3Above Analyst Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $18.00, more than 20% above the current $15.00, widening the premium to analyst targets even further.
- P4Volume Accumulation Momentum Positive
Trip ifStock price drops below $13.50, more than 10% below the current $15.00, signaling breakdown of the technical accumulation base.