Value
8.6/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
- ▸Attractively valued
VLGEA · Why this verdict
Why Village Super Market (VLGEA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Village Super Market screens as statistically cheap but fails the quality floor, with weak margins, inconsistent earnings, and insider selling offsetting supportive price momentum - a value name whose re-rating depends on margin stabilization rather than growth.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum indicators are constructive - a momentum score of 6.6 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day moving average - even though quality and growth scores are weak. Momentum breakdown | Price should continue trading above the 200-day moving average with OBV continuing to accumulate, supporting near-term price stability. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum can reverse quickly in a low-growth, low-quality name once accumulation stalls; the RSI-derived momentum component (5.5) is only modestly above the engine's threshold, leaving little cushion. | ||
Village Super Market's quality score of 3.3 sits below the engine's 4.0 minimum investment floor, driven by weak margins (operating margin component 0.6, net margin component 1.1) and no competitive moat, triggering an exit-position action note. Components | Quality score should remain below 4.0 and margin components should stay compressed unless the company demonstrates a structural margin improvement over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrocery retail structurally operates on thin margins; a 3.3 quality score may just reflect the sector norm rather than a temporary weakness that will improve. | ||
Village Super Market trades at a discount valuation (P/E component 8.7, EV/EBITDA component 7.2), which the engine flags as attractively valued despite weak growth and quality metrics. Valuation breakdown | P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples should re-rate upward or hold steady as the market recognizes the discount, supporting price appreciation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuation may reflect deteriorating fundamentals (quality score 3.3, revenue growth just 2.9%) rather than an unrecognized bargain - a value trap. | ||
Insiders sold $1,591,441 (0.254% of market cap) over the past 90 days with zero buys across 4 sell transactions, and the top-level insider signal reads BEARISH. Insider transaction read | Insider transactions should shift toward net buying or at least stop net selling over the next 12 months if management's view of the business improves. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales at a small-cap grocery chain are often for personal liquidity or diversification reasons unrelated to a negative view of the business, so this signal may be noise. | ||
The company has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -13.5%, raising doubt about forecasting reliability heading into the next earnings report in 94 days. Avg surprise pct | Beat rate should improve toward at least 2 of the next 4 reports beating estimates, with average surprise moving toward positive territory. | →Stable |
| CounterGrocery same-store metrics are highly seasonal and estimate misses may reflect analyst modeling error rather than deteriorating operations. | ||
Momentum indicators are constructive - a momentum score of 6.6 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day moving average - even though quality and growth scores are weak.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should continue trading above the 200-day moving average with OBV continuing to accumulate, supporting near-term price stability.
CounterMomentum can reverse quickly in a low-growth, low-quality name once accumulation stalls; the RSI-derived momentum component (5.5) is only modestly above the engine's threshold, leaving little cushion.
Village Super Market's quality score of 3.3 sits below the engine's 4.0 minimum investment floor, driven by weak margins (operating margin component 0.6, net margin component 1.1) and no competitive moat, triggering an exit-position action note.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Quality score should remain below 4.0 and margin components should stay compressed unless the company demonstrates a structural margin improvement over the next 12 months.
CounterGrocery retail structurally operates on thin margins; a 3.3 quality score may just reflect the sector norm rather than a temporary weakness that will improve.
Village Super Market trades at a discount valuation (P/E component 8.7, EV/EBITDA component 7.2), which the engine flags as attractively valued despite weak growth and quality metrics.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples should re-rate upward or hold steady as the market recognizes the discount, supporting price appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap valuation may reflect deteriorating fundamentals (quality score 3.3, revenue growth just 2.9%) rather than an unrecognized bargain - a value trap.
Insiders sold $1,591,441 (0.254% of market cap) over the past 90 days with zero buys across 4 sell transactions, and the top-level insider signal reads BEARISH.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should shift toward net buying or at least stop net selling over the next 12 months if management's view of the business improves.
CounterInsider sales at a small-cap grocery chain are often for personal liquidity or diversification reasons unrelated to a negative view of the business, so this signal may be noise.
The company has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -13.5%, raising doubt about forecasting reliability heading into the next earnings report in 94 days.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- Beat rate should improve toward at least 2 of the next 4 reports beating estimates, with average surprise moving toward positive territory.
CounterGrocery same-store metrics are highly seasonal and estimate misses may reflect analyst modeling error rather than deteriorating operations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 0.6 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 57% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:73d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Catalyst at 3.0, and Quality at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Relative Valuation
Trip ifEV/EBITDA multiple compresses below 5x from the current 7.2x, signaling the value discount is deepening rather than closing.
- P2Quality Score Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.3, or operating margin component exceeds 3.0.
- P3Positive Price Momentum Despite Weak Fundamentals
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.6, or price closes below the 200-day moving average.
- P4Insider Selling Signals Caution
Trip ifNet insider selling value exceeds $3,000,000 over a rolling 90-day window, more than double the current $1,591,441.
- P5Weak Earnings Consistency
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise turns positive and exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, compared to the current -13.5%.