Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.41
- ▸Attractively valued
VFC · Why this verdict
Why V.F. (VFC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
V.F. Corporation is executing a turnaround with three consecutive earnings beats, rising analyst estimates, and positive price momentum with volume accumulation, though high leverage at a 2.7 debt-to-equity ratio, weak revenue growth, and analyst price targets already reached constrain the near-term upside case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
V.F. Corporation has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters with an average positive surprise of 40.5%, and analyst earnings estimates have risen 6.5% in the past 30 days, suggesting the market is beginning to recognize that the company's restructuring efforts are improving profitability ahead of schedule. Earnings | V.F. Corporation beats earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, and analyst consensus estimates continue rising by at least 3% in the next two reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the four quarters returned an unknown result and another had a large negative loss that was beaten only because the estimate was also deeply negative; the turnaround may still be in an early, fragile stage where one bad quarter could reset expectations dramatically. | ||
V.F. Corporation trades at a PEG of 0.44 and forward price-to-earnings of 13x, which is attractive for a branded apparel company with turnaround momentum, but the analyst consensus price target has essentially been reached, leaving only 1.2% implied upside from the current $17.97 price. Valuation breakdown | Analyst consensus price target is revised upward to at least $20 within the next two quarters as the turnaround narrative strengthens, restoring a positive gap between price and target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price target revisions in apparel companies often lag operational improvements; the fact that targets have been reached while the turnaround is still early suggests analysts may need to see another one to two quarters of execution before revising higher. | ||
V.F. Corporation's momentum score of 7.2, rising on-balance volume, and position above the 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal indicate that institutional money has been returning to the stock after a prolonged period of underperformance. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend remains positive and the stock stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 of the next 4 months, confirming that the momentum recovery is sustainable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is trading near its take-profit level of $18.19, implying only 1.2% further upside before reaching resistance, which means the current momentum rally may be close to exhaustion with limited room to extend further without a fundamental catalyst. | ||
V.F. Corporation carries a 2.7 debt-to-equity ratio while reporting only modest revenue growth, a combination that leaves limited financial flexibility for brand investment and creates vulnerability if consumer spending softens or interest rates remain elevated. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 within 12 months through asset sales or free cash flow application to debt repayment, reducing financial risk materially. | ↑Improving |
| CounterApparel holding companies frequently use leverage to fund brand acquisitions and working capital without impairing their core franchise value; V.F. Corporation's Timberland, Dickies, and Supreme brands retain independent market positions that provide asset coverage for the debt load. | ||
V.F. Corporation has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters with an average positive surprise of 40.5%, and analyst earnings estimates have risen 6.5% in the past 30 days, suggesting the market is beginning to recognize that the company's restructuring efforts are improving profitability ahead of schedule.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- V.F. Corporation beats earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, and analyst consensus estimates continue rising by at least 3% in the next two reporting cycles.
CounterOne of the four quarters returned an unknown result and another had a large negative loss that was beaten only because the estimate was also deeply negative; the turnaround may still be in an early, fragile stage where one bad quarter could reset expectations dramatically.
V.F. Corporation trades at a PEG of 0.44 and forward price-to-earnings of 13x, which is attractive for a branded apparel company with turnaround momentum, but the analyst consensus price target has essentially been reached, leaving only 1.2% implied upside from the current $17.97 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised upward to at least $20 within the next two quarters as the turnaround narrative strengthens, restoring a positive gap between price and target.
CounterAnalyst price target revisions in apparel companies often lag operational improvements; the fact that targets have been reached while the turnaround is still early suggests analysts may need to see another one to two quarters of execution before revising higher.
V.F. Corporation's momentum score of 7.2, rising on-balance volume, and position above the 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal indicate that institutional money has been returning to the stock after a prolonged period of underperformance.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend remains positive and the stock stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 of the next 4 months, confirming that the momentum recovery is sustainable.
CounterThe stock is trading near its take-profit level of $18.19, implying only 1.2% further upside before reaching resistance, which means the current momentum rally may be close to exhaustion with limited room to extend further without a fundamental catalyst.
V.F. Corporation carries a 2.7 debt-to-equity ratio while reporting only modest revenue growth, a combination that leaves limited financial flexibility for brand investment and creates vulnerability if consumer spending softens or interest rates remain elevated.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 within 12 months through asset sales or free cash flow application to debt repayment, reducing financial risk materially.
CounterApparel holding companies frequently use leverage to fund brand acquisitions and working capital without impairing their core franchise value; V.F. Corporation's Timberland, Dickies, and Supreme brands retain independent market positions that provide asset coverage for the debt load.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 7.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.2 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 4.3 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $515,010 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Above max pain $10
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.03
Upside
+7.6%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.03 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Catalyst at 7.4, and Quality at 5.8; the weakest are Growth at 2.7, Peer rank at 4.0, and Insider at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Turnaround
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the earnings turnaround has stalled.
- P2Positive Momentum Volume Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 6 consecutive weeks and the stock falls more than 10% below the current $17.97, indicating institutional sellers have re-emerged.
- P3High Leverage Weak Growth Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 3.5 or interest coverage ratio falls below 2.0x, indicating leverage is becoming an acute financial risk.
- P4Attractive Valuation Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target is revised downward below $16, more than 11% below the current $17.97, indicating broad loss of confidence in the turnaround timeline.