VALE (VALE) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.29
- Estimate
- $0.42
- Surprise
- -30.7%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.3 → 5.4/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
VALE (VALE) missed the $0.42 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.29 — a large 30.7% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.3/10) to Sell at 5.4/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Coverage in the report window
- Vale Reports 20% Decline in Third-Quarter Core Profit — fiscal.ai, 2026-10-30
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates VALE Sell at 5.2/10.
0 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -30.7% surprise compares with a -28.4% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-02-11.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Analyst upside: 28%
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.09× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $11.39
- Price target
- $14.56
- Stop
- $10.73
- Upside to target
- +27.8%
- Reward-to-risk
- 4.3:1
The stock trades at 71.2× trailing but 6.1× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 16 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-31 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
VALE at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Other Industrial Metals & Mining
- Market cap
- $48.47B
- P/E (fwd)
- 6.1
- P/E (ttm)
- 71.2
- 52-week range
- $11.06–$17.94
- Off 52-week high
- 36.5%
- RSI (14)
- 16
- Volume vs avg
- 1.15×
- Score today
- 5.2/10