VALE (VALE) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.36
- Estimate
- $0.49
- Surprise
- -26.2%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.9 → 5.7/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
VALE (VALE) missed the $0.49 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.36 — a large 26.2% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.9/10) to Sell at 5.7/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates VALE Buy (Wait) at 5.5/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -26.2% surprise compares with a -15.1% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-10-29.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Analyst upside: 23%
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.27× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $11.84
- Entry target
- $11.52
- Price target
- $14.60
- Stop
- $10.88
- Upside to target
- +23.3%
- Reward-to-risk
- 4.3:1
The stock trades at 24.0× trailing but 6.4× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 18 — a level conventionally read as oversold; trading volume is running 1.6× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-27 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
VALE at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Other Industrial Metals & Mining
- Market cap
- $51.07B
- P/E (fwd)
- 6.4
- P/E (ttm)
- 24.0
- 52-week range
- $11.43–$17.94
- Off 52-week high
- 34.0%
- RSI (14)
- 18
- Volume vs avg
- 1.56×
- Score today
- 5.5/10