Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.24
UTI · Why this verdict
Why Universal Technical Institute I (UTI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Technical Institute has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 57% where estimates existed, and shows solid technical support, but a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 39.5, heavy dependence on Title IV federal education funding at 78% of revenue, and failed momentum and asymmetry screens combine to make the near-term setup unfavorable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
UTI trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a Bollinger band position near the upper band, and technical support levels are well-defined, providing a base for recovery if momentum improves. Technical breakdown | The stock should remain above its $34.63 support level over the next 12 months while price momentum scores improve above 4.5. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe momentum score of 4.2 is slightly below the minimum threshold of 4.5 required by the screening framework, and the stock also fails the price asymmetry test, suggesting the technical setup is not yet confirmed. | ||
Universal Technical Institute beat earnings expectations in the 3 quarters where estimates were available, with an average positive surprise of 57%, suggesting the company's enrollment and retention model is delivering operational results above what analysts model. Earnings | EPS should beat consensus estimates by at least 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overall score is only 4.3 out of 10 and the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 39.5 is expensive for a vocational training company, limiting the margin of error if enrollment trends soften. | ||
Approximately 78% of UTI's revenue comes from Title IV federal education programs, meaning a regulatory change, funding cut, or accreditation issue could immediately impair the majority of the company's revenue base. Bear case | The share of Title IV revenue should decline below 70% within 12 months as the company diversifies into employer-funded or direct-pay enrollment channels. | →Stable |
| CounterTitle IV reliance is common across for-profit education companies, and UTI's vocational focus on high-demand technical trades creates direct employer relationships that may insulate it from broader regulatory pushback targeting lower-quality programs. | ||
Analysts assign a price target suggesting modest upside from current levels with average favorable ratings, and the catalyst score of 7.6 out of 10 indicates upcoming earnings events and news flow have a positive expected tone. Catalyst breakdown | Analyst price targets should be revised to at least $42, implying more than 14% upside from the current $36.70, within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is limited to 6 analysts with signals described as dampened, and the stock has effectively reached its current target, leaving very little room for appreciation under existing forecasts. | ||
UTI trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a Bollinger band position near the upper band, and technical support levels are well-defined, providing a base for recovery if momentum improves.
Tripped↓DeterioratingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should remain above its $34.63 support level over the next 12 months while price momentum scores improve above 4.5.
CounterThe momentum score of 4.2 is slightly below the minimum threshold of 4.5 required by the screening framework, and the stock also fails the price asymmetry test, suggesting the technical setup is not yet confirmed.
Universal Technical Institute beat earnings expectations in the 3 quarters where estimates were available, with an average positive surprise of 57%, suggesting the company's enrollment and retention model is delivering operational results above what analysts model.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat consensus estimates by at least 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe overall score is only 4.3 out of 10 and the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 39.5 is expensive for a vocational training company, limiting the margin of error if enrollment trends soften.
Approximately 78% of UTI's revenue comes from Title IV federal education programs, meaning a regulatory change, funding cut, or accreditation issue could immediately impair the majority of the company's revenue base.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The share of Title IV revenue should decline below 70% within 12 months as the company diversifies into employer-funded or direct-pay enrollment channels.
CounterTitle IV reliance is common across for-profit education companies, and UTI's vocational focus on high-demand technical trades creates direct employer relationships that may insulate it from broader regulatory pushback targeting lower-quality programs.
Analysts assign a price target suggesting modest upside from current levels with average favorable ratings, and the catalyst score of 7.6 out of 10 indicates upcoming earnings events and news flow have a positive expected tone.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be revised to at least $42, implying more than 14% upside from the current $36.70, within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is limited to 6 analysts with signals described as dampened, and the stock has effectively reached its current target, leaving very little room for appreciation under existing forecasts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 0.8 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -13% FCF/NI
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 66%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $124,537,276 (8.988% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:94d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- INSIDER:8.99%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.98
Upside
+44.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.1<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of 2.98.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Catalyst at 7.5, and Technical at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Growth at 2.1, and Peer rank at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat History
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Title Iv Regulatory Concentration
Trip ifTitle IV revenue concentration rises above 82%, more than 4 percentage points above the current 78%.
- P3Technical Support StructureTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $34.63, more than 5.6% below the current $36.70.
- P4Analyst Coverage And Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target remains below $38 for more than 6 consecutive months.