Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.63
USPH · Why this verdict
Why U.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analyst consensus places the price target at $81.49, implying 24% upside from the current $65.52, and an asymmetry ratio of 2.85 confirms a favorable risk/reward relationship even if not all the upside is captured. Sentiment breakdown | The price should rise above $75 within 12 months, capturing at least half of the implied analyst upside. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only sparse analyst coverage and a market cap right at the $1 billion floor, the consensus target may reflect only one or two analysts, reducing its reliability as a valuation anchor. | ||
U.S. Physical Therapy converts 124% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that the company's reported earnings significantly understate actual cash generation, a quality signal that supports valuation relative to reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion should remain above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA conversion ratio above 100% may reflect timing differences in working capital rather than structural cash generation superiority, and the forward price-to-earnings of 19.2 is not cheap for a service business. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at 2.7% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend that argues for waiting for technical stabilization before adding exposure. Momentum breakdown | The price should recross its 200-day moving average within 12 months, with the 200-day slope turning flat or positive. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is showing improvement and the RSI is at 62, suggesting price momentum is recovering even while the 200-day average still slopes down, a pattern that often precedes a trend reversal. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 31.00 is among the highest observed in the screened universe, reflecting unusual hedging or bearish options positioning that signals options market participants expect significant downside risk. Key risks | The put-to-call ratio should decline below 10 within 12 months as directional uncertainty resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios in low-volume small-cap options markets often reflect thin liquidity rather than informed bearish positioning, and should be interpreted cautiously. | ||
Analyst consensus places the price target at $81.49, implying 24% upside from the current $65.52, and an asymmetry ratio of 2.85 confirms a favorable risk/reward relationship even if not all the upside is captured.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should rise above $75 within 12 months, capturing at least half of the implied analyst upside.
CounterWith only sparse analyst coverage and a market cap right at the $1 billion floor, the consensus target may reflect only one or two analysts, reducing its reliability as a valuation anchor.
U.S. Physical Therapy converts 124% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that the company's reported earnings significantly understate actual cash generation, a quality signal that supports valuation relative to reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion should remain above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterA conversion ratio above 100% may reflect timing differences in working capital rather than structural cash generation superiority, and the forward price-to-earnings of 19.2 is not cheap for a service business.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at 2.7% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend that argues for waiting for technical stabilization before adding exposure.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should recross its 200-day moving average within 12 months, with the 200-day slope turning flat or positive.
CounterMACD is showing improvement and the RSI is at 62, suggesting price momentum is recovering even while the 200-day average still slopes down, a pattern that often precedes a trend reversal.
A put-to-call ratio of 31.00 is among the highest observed in the screened universe, reflecting unusual hedging or bearish options positioning that signals options market participants expect significant downside risk.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio should decline below 10 within 12 months as directional uncertainty resolves.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios in low-volume small-cap options markets often reflect thin liquidity rather than informed bearish positioning, and should be interpreted cautiously.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
U.S. Physical Therapy offers 24% upside to analyst consensus targets and converts free cash flow at 124% of net income, but the company falls just below the $1 billion minimum market cap threshold for this investable universe, and a confirmed price downtrend combined with extremely elevated put-to-call options activity creates a difficult entry environment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $48,777 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 17.00
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 252.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.74
Upside
+11.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.1, Momentum at 7.0, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Peer rank at 2.9, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice declines to below $60.98, more than 7% below the current $65.52.
- P2Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income in any of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains negative for more than 9 consecutive months.
- P4Extreme Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 40, exceeding the current 31 level.