Value
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
USAS · Why this verdict
Why Americas Gold and Silver Corpor (USAS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Americas Gold and Silver grew revenue by 188% year-over-year, placing it among the fastest-growing names in the industrial metals and mining sector, driven by mine production ramp-up. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 50% year-over-year over the next 12 months as production volumes continue to scale. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth of this magnitude from a small base can stall sharply as production hits capacity constraints, and the company has missed earnings estimates in 3 consecutive quarters despite the high revenue growth. | ||
Analyst coverage, though limited to one firm, projects 44% upside from the current price of $5.76, implying the market has not yet fully priced the value of the company's expanded production capacity. Sentiment breakdown | The price should rise above $8.00 within 12 months, approaching the analyst price target, as production results validate the bull case. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only one analyst covering the stock, the single price target carries very high uncertainty and cannot be treated as a true consensus — the 69% raw analyst upside figure shown is likely the un-haircut version. | ||
Americas Gold and Silver missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 140%, suggesting the company is consistently unable to meet analyst forecasts as it scales production. Earnings | The EPS surprise should improve above -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as operational efficiency matures. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one INLINE quarter and the trajectory of improving estimates suggest analysts are recalibrating to actual results, and current low absolute EPS levels make percentage surprises mechanically extreme. | ||
Despite being cash-flow negative, Americas Gold and Silver holds a Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong relative balance sheet health across liquidity, leverage, and profitability trend dimensions. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score should remain at 7 or above over the next 12 months as the balance sheet is maintained through the production ramp phase. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score for a mining company can mask commodity-price-driven balance sheet improvements that reverse rapidly when metal prices fall. | ||
Americas Gold and Silver grew revenue by 188% year-over-year, placing it among the fastest-growing names in the industrial metals and mining sector, driven by mine production ramp-up.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 50% year-over-year over the next 12 months as production volumes continue to scale.
CounterRevenue growth of this magnitude from a small base can stall sharply as production hits capacity constraints, and the company has missed earnings estimates in 3 consecutive quarters despite the high revenue growth.
Analyst coverage, though limited to one firm, projects 44% upside from the current price of $5.76, implying the market has not yet fully priced the value of the company's expanded production capacity.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should rise above $8.00 within 12 months, approaching the analyst price target, as production results validate the bull case.
CounterWith only one analyst covering the stock, the single price target carries very high uncertainty and cannot be treated as a true consensus — the 69% raw analyst upside figure shown is likely the un-haircut version.
Americas Gold and Silver missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 140%, suggesting the company is consistently unable to meet analyst forecasts as it scales production.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The EPS surprise should improve above -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as operational efficiency matures.
CounterThe one INLINE quarter and the trajectory of improving estimates suggest analysts are recalibrating to actual results, and current low absolute EPS levels make percentage surprises mechanically extreme.
Despite being cash-flow negative, Americas Gold and Silver holds a Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong relative balance sheet health across liquidity, leverage, and profitability trend dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score should remain at 7 or above over the next 12 months as the balance sheet is maintained through the production ramp phase.
CounterA high Piotroski score for a mining company can mask commodity-price-driven balance sheet improvements that reverse rapidly when metal prices fall.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Americas Gold and Silver has delivered 188% year-over-year revenue growth and ranks as an industry growth leader, with analysts pointing to 44% price upside, but consecutive earnings misses over 3 quarters and free cash flow burning at 20% of revenue signal that rapid revenue growth has not yet translated to financial sustainability.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -20% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 188% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 100%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.7 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 113%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
4.66
Upside
+69.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 2.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.0, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.4, and Quality at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside Catalyst
Trip ifPrice drops below $5.36, more than 7% below the current $5.76.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -100% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Strong Balance Sheet Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 6 in any of the next 4 reported quarters.