Value
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| p ocf | 7.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 14.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
UMH · Why this verdict
Why UMH Properties (UMH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 269% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $52,327 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 589.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.12
Upside
+10.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; weakest: Peer rank at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.8, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.