Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
ULH · Why this verdict
Why Universal Logistics Holdings, I (ULH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Logistics Holdings sits below the $400M investable market-cap threshold and in a confirmed technical downtrend, having already run past its analyst price target, even though it screens cheap on forward earnings and maintains a well-covered dividend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Universal Logistics Holdings' $353M market capitalization sits below the $400M minimum threshold, placing it outside the investable universe per the action note. Engine summary | A resolution would show market cap rising and remaining above $400M over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterA modest gap below an arbitrary $400M cutoff is a marginal, easily reversible technicality rather than a fundamental problem. | ||
Universal Logistics Holdings is in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a -6.9%/30d slope, alongside a hard-blocking death cross. Momentum breakdown | A reversal would show price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterTrucking stocks are highly cyclical and can reverse sharply on freight-rate inflection points, making the current technical downtrend a potentially lagging signal. | ||
Universal Logistics Holdings has already run past its analyst price target, with the engine's asymmetry ratio turning negative (-0.31). Engine gate (failed) | A resolution favoring further upside would show the asymmetry ratio turning positive over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterA stock running past its price target can simply reflect the target being stale and due for an analyst upgrade rather than the stock being overextended. | ||
Universal Logistics Holdings trades at a cheap forward valuation, with a forward P/E of 12.2x and PEG of 0.06 per the value dimension's notes. Valuation breakdown | A re-rating would show the forward P/E expanding toward peer trucking-sector levels over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterA cheap multiple in a cyclical downtrend can reflect the market correctly pricing in a coming earnings decline rather than an overlooked bargain. | ||
Universal Logistics Holdings maintains a dividend with a high safety score of 9.0 and a 3.1% yield, even amid earnings concerns. Catalyst breakdown | A sustainable payout would avoid a dividend cut over the next 12 months despite the earnings pressure. | — |
| CounterThe same catalyst notes flag earnings concerns (2 beats against 2 misses), which can erode dividend coverage if the trend continues. | ||
Universal Logistics Holdings' $353M market capitalization sits below the $400M minimum threshold, placing it outside the investable universe per the action note.
—Engine summary
- Expectation
- A resolution would show market cap rising and remaining above $400M over the next 12 months.
CounterA modest gap below an arbitrary $400M cutoff is a marginal, easily reversible technicality rather than a fundamental problem.
Universal Logistics Holdings is in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a -6.9%/30d slope, alongside a hard-blocking death cross.
—Momentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A reversal would show price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterTrucking stocks are highly cyclical and can reverse sharply on freight-rate inflection points, making the current technical downtrend a potentially lagging signal.
Universal Logistics Holdings has already run past its analyst price target, with the engine's asymmetry ratio turning negative (-0.31).
—Engine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A resolution favoring further upside would show the asymmetry ratio turning positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA stock running past its price target can simply reflect the target being stale and due for an analyst upgrade rather than the stock being overextended.
Universal Logistics Holdings trades at a cheap forward valuation, with a forward P/E of 12.2x and PEG of 0.06 per the value dimension's notes.
—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- A re-rating would show the forward P/E expanding toward peer trucking-sector levels over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap multiple in a cyclical downtrend can reflect the market correctly pricing in a coming earnings decline rather than an overlooked bargain.
Universal Logistics Holdings maintains a dividend with a high safety score of 9.0 and a 3.1% yield, even amid earnings concerns.
—Catalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- A sustainable payout would avoid a dividend cut over the next 12 months despite the earnings pressure.
CounterThe same catalyst notes flag earnings concerns (2 beats against 2 misses), which can erode dividend coverage if the trend continues.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 7.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-2.00
Upside
-29.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -2.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of -2.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Momentum at 5.9, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Peer rank at 2.7, and Technical at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Investable Market Cap
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $400M (from current $353M), restoring investable-universe eligibility.
- P2Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims and closes above the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio turns positive, rising above 1.0 (from current -0.31).
- P4Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x (from current 12.2x) without a matching increase in earnings.
- P5Well Covered Dividend
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 5.0 (from current 9.0), signaling elevated cut risk.