Value
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
ULH · Why this verdict
Why Universal Logistics Holdings, I (ULH) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Logistics Holdings screens as deeply undervalued and pays a supportive dividend, but customer concentration risk, declining revenue, and a below-floor quality score keep the fundamental picture weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Universal Logistics screens as attractively valued with a PEG ratio of 0.08 and a forward P/E of 16.6x. Valuation breakdown | The value-component score should hold at or above 7.0 (currently 8.7) over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG in a trucking company facing declining revenue can reflect a legitimate market discount for cyclical freight-demand risk rather than a mispricing. | ||
The bear case flags a customer-concentration risk — the top ten customers represent 59% of revenue — a structural vulnerability the risk notes size as 1 HIGH concern. Bear case | No single customer loss or contract non-renewal among the top ten should occur over the next 12 months for this risk to stay contained. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh customer concentration is common in contract logistics and can reflect deep, sticky enterprise relationships rather than fragility. | ||
Universal Logistics' revenue growth notes flag a 4% YoY decline, contributing to a quality score (1.6) well below the platform's 4.0 floor. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months for the quality score to recover above the floor. | →Stable |
| CounterTrucking industry freight volumes are cyclical, and a modest revenue decline may reflect a broader sector downturn rather than company-specific weakness. | ||
The catalyst notes flag Universal Logistics as a dividend aristocrat yielding 2.2%, providing income support even amid the earnings and quality concerns. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained without a cut over the next 12 months, preserving the aristocrat status. | →Stable |
| CounterA dividend aristocrat track record doesn't guarantee continuity if declining revenue and earnings concerns (2 misses in the last 4 quarters) persist. | ||
Universal Logistics screens as attractively valued with a PEG ratio of 0.08 and a forward P/E of 16.6x.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value-component score should hold at or above 7.0 (currently 8.7) over the next 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG in a trucking company facing declining revenue can reflect a legitimate market discount for cyclical freight-demand risk rather than a mispricing.
The bear case flags a customer-concentration risk — the top ten customers represent 59% of revenue — a structural vulnerability the risk notes size as 1 HIGH concern.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No single customer loss or contract non-renewal among the top ten should occur over the next 12 months for this risk to stay contained.
CounterHigh customer concentration is common in contract logistics and can reflect deep, sticky enterprise relationships rather than fragility.
Universal Logistics' revenue growth notes flag a 4% YoY decline, contributing to a quality score (1.6) well below the platform's 4.0 floor.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months for the quality score to recover above the floor.
CounterTrucking industry freight volumes are cyclical, and a modest revenue decline may reflect a broader sector downturn rather than company-specific weakness.
The catalyst notes flag Universal Logistics as a dividend aristocrat yielding 2.2%, providing income support even amid the earnings and quality concerns.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained without a cut over the next 12 months, preserving the aristocrat status.
CounterA dividend aristocrat track record doesn't guarantee continuity if declining revenue and earnings concerns (2 misses in the last 4 quarters) persist.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.50
Upside
-26.1%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.5<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of -2.50.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Technical at 6.6, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Momentum at 2.5, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifValue-component score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.7.
- P2Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifAny single top-ten customer accounting for more than 15% of revenue is lost or non-renewed within 12 months.
- P3Declining Revenue Trend
Trip ifRevenue growth stays negative (below 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters, extending the current -4% decline.
- P4Dividend Aristocrat Income Support
Trip ifThe company cuts its dividend payout by more than 10%, breaking the current aristocrat streak.