Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
ULH · Why this verdict
Why Universal Logistics Holdings, I (ULH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Logistics looks cheap on forward earnings but combines weak quality, heavy customer concentration, softening revenue and a price already above the engine's target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality of 1.6 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and weak margins. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 as operating margin recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 10.0 and a 2.4% dividend yield suggest the business still generates adequate returns. | ||
The top ten customers account for 59.0% of revenue, making results highly exposed to a handful of accounts. Bear case | Top-ten customer share declines below 50% as the base diversifies. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLong-term logistics contracts with large customers can be sticky, so concentration does not necessarily mean imminent loss. | ||
The price of $17.35 is already 21.6% above the target (upside of -21.6%), so no upside remains to the engine's target. Bear case | Upside to target turns positive only after a pullback or higher resistance. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe target is a technical resistance level, which can reset higher if the stock breaks out. | ||
Valuation screens attractive, with a forward P/E of 15.1x, a PEG of 0.07 and a value score of 8.9. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 20x while earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe PEG rests on a rebound from depressed earnings, and 2 of the last 4 quarters were misses. | ||
Revenue is declining about 4%, with the latest quarter at $379.3M versus $393.8M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue recovers above the year-ago level of $394M. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $390.4M implies stabilization rather than further decline. | ||
Quality of 1.6 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and weak margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as operating margin recovers.
CounterEarnings growth scores 10.0 and a 2.4% dividend yield suggest the business still generates adequate returns.
The top ten customers account for 59.0% of revenue, making results highly exposed to a handful of accounts.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Top-ten customer share declines below 50% as the base diversifies.
CounterLong-term logistics contracts with large customers can be sticky, so concentration does not necessarily mean imminent loss.
The price of $17.35 is already 21.6% above the target (upside of -21.6%), so no upside remains to the engine's target.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Upside to target turns positive only after a pullback or higher resistance.
CounterThe target is a technical resistance level, which can reset higher if the stock breaks out.
Valuation screens attractive, with a forward P/E of 15.1x, a PEG of 0.07 and a value score of 8.9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 20x while earnings grow.
CounterThe PEG rests on a rebound from depressed earnings, and 2 of the last 4 quarters were misses.
Revenue is declining about 4%, with the latest quarter at $379.3M versus $393.8M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue recovers above the year-ago level of $394M.
CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $390.4M implies stabilization rather than further decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.6 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.41
Upside
-15.5%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of -1.41.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Technical at 6.6, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Momentum at 1.9, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifTop ten customers' share of revenue falls below 50% from current 59.0%.
- P2Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifUpside to target rises above 10% from current -21.6%.
- P3Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from current 1.6.
- P4Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 25x from current 15.1x.
- P5Softening Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $394M for 2 consecutive quarters.