Value
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
ULH · Why this verdict
Why Universal Logistics Holdings, I (ULH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Logistics has strong recent earnings and momentum, but the price is 49.9% above the $13.60 analyst target, revenue is slipping, quality is 2.8/10, and 59% of revenue comes from ten customers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $27.12 is 49.9% above the $13.60 analyst target, with a negative reward-to-risk of -3.32 and price-target sentiment scoring only 0.8/10. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised toward the current price, or the price retraces toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe target may be stale after a sharp rally; the October beat of 0.69 versus a 0.32 estimate could trigger large target revisions. | ||
The latest quarter beat estimates strongly, with EPS of 0.69 versus a 0.32 estimate (115.6% surprise), part of three beats in the last four quarters. Catalyst breakdown | EPS stays above consensus over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOne large beat may reflect one-time items, and three beats against one miss is a modest record in a cyclical trucking business. | ||
The top ten customers account for 59.0% of revenue, and quality scores 2.8/10 with no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of about 4. Bear case | Top-ten customer share falls below 50% and quality rises above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterLosing one of a few large customers would hit revenue directly, and thin margins (operating margin 3.1/10) leave little buffer. | ||
Revenue is declining about 1% YoY, growth scores 2.3/10, and growth ranks near the bottom of peers at 0.77/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive above 3% YoY within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFreight-market weakness has no clear end date, and continued flat revenue undermines the high valuation implied by the price. | ||
Momentum scores 7.4/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 72 is overbought. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and RSI cools below 70 without a break of the $25.22 stop. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought readings above 70 often precede pullbacks, particularly when price is well above the analyst target. | ||
The price of $27.12 is 49.9% above the $13.60 analyst target, with a negative reward-to-risk of -3.32 and price-target sentiment scoring only 0.8/10.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the current price, or the price retraces toward the target.
CounterThe target may be stale after a sharp rally; the October beat of 0.69 versus a 0.32 estimate could trigger large target revisions.
The latest quarter beat estimates strongly, with EPS of 0.69 versus a 0.32 estimate (115.6% surprise), part of three beats in the last four quarters.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS stays above consensus over the next four quarters.
CounterOne large beat may reflect one-time items, and three beats against one miss is a modest record in a cyclical trucking business.
The top ten customers account for 59.0% of revenue, and quality scores 2.8/10 with no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of about 4.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Top-ten customer share falls below 50% and quality rises above 4.0.
CounterLosing one of a few large customers would hit revenue directly, and thin margins (operating margin 3.1/10) leave little buffer.
Revenue is declining about 1% YoY, growth scores 2.3/10, and growth ranks near the bottom of peers at 0.77/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive above 3% YoY within 12 months.
CounterFreight-market weakness has no clear end date, and continued flat revenue undermines the high valuation implied by the price.
Momentum scores 7.4/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 72 is overbought.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and RSI cools below 70 without a break of the $25.22 stop.
CounterOverbought readings above 70 often precede pullbacks, particularly when price is well above the analyst target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 0.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.60
Upside
-54.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -3.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of -3.60.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Catalyst at 6.7, and Insider at 5.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.3, Quality at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Far Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises above $32 (more than 18% above current $27.12) with no analyst target increase.
- P2Recent Earnings Strength
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Customer Concentration Weak Quality
Trip ifTop-ten customer share exceeds 65% of revenue from current 59.0%.
- P4Flat To Declining Revenue
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue decline exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Overbought Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $25.22 stop level, more than 7% below current $27.12.