Value
5.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
UL · Why this verdict
Why Unilever (UL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Unilever generates 31% return on equity and 19% net margins, ranking at the top of its consumer products peer group on margin quality, which supports a durable business model over the medium term. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 25% and net margins remain above 15% for the next 4 reported periods, sustaining the quality advantage | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score of 6.5 is solid but not exceptional, and leverage at a debt-to-equity of 1.6 reduces the real ROE quality since it is partially balance-sheet-driven rather than purely operational | ||
The stock is trading at $58.69, already above the estimated resistance take-profit level of $57.94, with negative asymmetry ratio of -0.28 and negative upside of -1.3%, meaning there is no favorable risk-reward entry at current prices. Targets | Price pulls back below $55, more than 5% from current levels, before any new entry is considered favorable | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst consensus may revise targets upward given the 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of 13.2%, which could restore positive upside | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average slope declining at 1.4% per 30 days and a death cross still recovering, indicating sustained selling pressure despite MACD improvement. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and MA slope turns positive, removing the downtrend classification | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and momentum of 5.9 just clears the minimum threshold of 5.5, suggesting the worst of the downtrend may already be priced in | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.35 — among the highest bearish option positioning ratios in the dataset — indicates that a substantial portion of options market participants are positioned for further downside, creating meaningful sentiment headwinds. Options | Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 as the downtrend resolves and bearish positioning unwinds, signaling a sentiment shift within 12 months | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely elevated put/call ratios occasionally mark sentiment extremes and contrarian turning points, particularly for large-cap consumer staples names with loyal institutional ownership | ||
Unilever generates 31% return on equity and 19% net margins, ranking at the top of its consumer products peer group on margin quality, which supports a durable business model over the medium term.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 25% and net margins remain above 15% for the next 4 reported periods, sustaining the quality advantage
CounterThe quality score of 6.5 is solid but not exceptional, and leverage at a debt-to-equity of 1.6 reduces the real ROE quality since it is partially balance-sheet-driven rather than purely operational
The stock is trading at $58.69, already above the estimated resistance take-profit level of $57.94, with negative asymmetry ratio of -0.28 and negative upside of -1.3%, meaning there is no favorable risk-reward entry at current prices.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back below $55, more than 5% from current levels, before any new entry is considered favorable
CounterAnalyst consensus may revise targets upward given the 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of 13.2%, which could restore positive upside
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average slope declining at 1.4% per 30 days and a death cross still recovering, indicating sustained selling pressure despite MACD improvement.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and MA slope turns positive, removing the downtrend classification
CounterMACD is improving and momentum of 5.9 just clears the minimum threshold of 5.5, suggesting the worst of the downtrend may already be priced in
A put/call ratio of 3.35 — among the highest bearish option positioning ratios in the dataset — indicates that a substantial portion of options market participants are positioned for further downside, creating meaningful sentiment headwinds.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 as the downtrend resolves and bearish positioning unwinds, signaling a sentiment shift within 12 months
CounterExtremely elevated put/call ratios occasionally mark sentiment extremes and contrarian turning points, particularly for large-cap consumer staples names with loyal institutional ownership
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Unilever PLC trades at a forward P/E of 15.1x with 31% return on equity and best-in-class margins of 19%, but the stock has already reached or exceeded the analyst price target leaving negative upside of -1.9%, and is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average with an elevated put/call ratio of 3.35.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.6 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 7.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 365.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-9.0%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Momentum at 7.0, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Insider at 5.0, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins And Roe
Trip ifNet margins fall below 12% or ROE drops below 20% for 2 consecutive reported periods
- P2Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifPrice rises above $62, more than 5% above the current $58.69, further exceeding the resistance target without analyst target revision
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice drops below $56.65 stop-loss level, more than 3% below current price
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 5.0 or remains above 3.0 for more than 90 days