Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 2.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 5.89
UBER · Why this verdict
Why Uber Technologies (UBER) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Uber missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent miss being -9.6% and the prior quarter missing by -25.5%, indicating execution challenges in translating revenue scale into earnings consistency. Earnings | Earnings beats resume for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with positive average surprise, confirming the miss pattern was temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter returned to a beat of +3.8%, suggesting the streak of misses may have already ended, and the average earnings surprise of -7.5% across all four quarters reflects only two bad quarters against two positive ones. | ||
Uber has built a wide economic moat through network effects in its ride-sharing and delivery platforms, generating 35% return on equity and 16% operating margins with a compounder-quality profile recognized by the quality score of 6.4 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 25% and operating margins stay above 12% over the next four quarters as the platform scales and driver efficiency improves. | →Stable |
| CounterThe PEG ratio of 5.91 indicates investors are paying a high multiple for expected growth, and the moat's durability faces ongoing regulatory pressure and autonomous vehicle disruption risk that could compress margins. | ||
Analysts set a consensus target of $96.08 against the current price of $72.85, implying 31.9% upside, with a sentiment score of 8.3 out of 10 and the analyst rating scoring 9.0 reflecting broad bullish coverage consensus. Targets | Analyst consensus price target stays above $90 over the next 12 months and the stock closes at least half the gap to the target price. | →Stable |
| CounterWith two consecutive earnings misses averaging -17.5% surprise, analyst targets may be based on estimates that have not yet been fully revised downward to reflect the company's actual delivery pace. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at -3.3% per month and the stock is below it in a confirmed downtrend, and while the MACD is improving and RSI is at 58, the death cross pattern has historically indicated several more months of underperformance before trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and sustains above it for at least 30 days within the next 12 months, confirming the recovery setup. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is rising even as price is below the 200-day moving average, which is an early sign that institutional buyers are building positions ahead of the technical reversal rather than waiting for confirmation. | ||
Uber missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent miss being -9.6% and the prior quarter missing by -25.5%, indicating execution challenges in translating revenue scale into earnings consistency.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats resume for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with positive average surprise, confirming the miss pattern was temporary.
CounterThe most recent quarter returned to a beat of +3.8%, suggesting the streak of misses may have already ended, and the average earnings surprise of -7.5% across all four quarters reflects only two bad quarters against two positive ones.
Uber has built a wide economic moat through network effects in its ride-sharing and delivery platforms, generating 35% return on equity and 16% operating margins with a compounder-quality profile recognized by the quality score of 6.4 out of 10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 25% and operating margins stay above 12% over the next four quarters as the platform scales and driver efficiency improves.
CounterThe PEG ratio of 5.91 indicates investors are paying a high multiple for expected growth, and the moat's durability faces ongoing regulatory pressure and autonomous vehicle disruption risk that could compress margins.
Analysts set a consensus target of $96.08 against the current price of $72.85, implying 31.9% upside, with a sentiment score of 8.3 out of 10 and the analyst rating scoring 9.0 reflecting broad bullish coverage consensus.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target stays above $90 over the next 12 months and the stock closes at least half the gap to the target price.
CounterWith two consecutive earnings misses averaging -17.5% surprise, analyst targets may be based on estimates that have not yet been fully revised downward to reflect the company's actual delivery pace.
The 200-day moving average is declining at -3.3% per month and the stock is below it in a confirmed downtrend, and while the MACD is improving and RSI is at 58, the death cross pattern has historically indicated several more months of underperformance before trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and sustains above it for at least 30 days within the next 12 months, confirming the recovery setup.
CounterOn-balance volume is rising even as price is below the 200-day moving average, which is an early sign that institutional buyers are building positions ahead of the technical reversal rather than waiting for confirmation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Uber operates a wide economic moat platform generating 35% return on equity and strong margins, with analysts targeting 32% upside from current levels, but a confirmed death cross and two consecutive earnings misses have created a technical and fundamental overhang that prevents near-term entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 5.8 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 77% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 3.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.00
Upside
+29.2%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Quality at 6.4, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.0, Technical at 3.2, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat 35 Pct Roe
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20%, more than 15 percentage points below the current 35%, indicating the platform's capital efficiency is deteriorating.
- P2Analyst Upside 32 Pct
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $80, less than 10% above the current price of $72.85, eliminating the upside thesis.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below $68.29, the current stop-loss level, as the downtrend extends beyond the current recovery setup.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that the miss pattern is ongoing rather than resolved.