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UANCVR Partners, LPBuy Wait7.1·$114.00+2.10%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CVR Partners delivers a 40% return on equity, 8/9 Piotroski score, and 26% revenue growth in the agricultural inputs sector, making it a high-quality business temporarily blocked by weak price momentum and a sector concentration cap that may lift as momentum recovers.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Roe 40 PctStable
  • Revenue Growth 26 Pct YoyStable
  • Oversold Rsi 17 Momentum BlockStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CVR Partners, LP (UAN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Wait for pullback to $108.61. BUY gates pass at $114.00, but leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $108.61 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate products. It serves agricultural and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007... Read more

$114.00+10.3% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 9 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.94%
IncomeYield10.77%(5y avg 10.42%)Payout91.73%at-risk
Entry $108.61(support + ATR)Stop $103.79Target $119.76(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $108.61. BUY gates pass at $114.00, but leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $108.61 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)-18.2
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn18.9%
ROE39.6%
Rev Growth26.0%
Beta0.14
Dividend10.77%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV75%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.00Resistance $122.20

Price Targets

$104
$109
$120
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.9%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $108.61. BUY gates pass at $114.00, but leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $108.61 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $119.76 (+5.1%), stop $103.79 (−9.8%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.76 (+10.3% upside). Target $119.76 (+5.1%), stop $103.79 (−9.8%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $103.79.

What are the risks of investing in UAN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is UAN overvalued or undervalued?

CVR Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward -18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about UAN?

8 analysts cover UAN with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does CVR Partners, LP do?CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the...

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate products. It serves agricultural and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sugar Land, Texas.

Related stocks: ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) · IPI (Intrepid Potash, Inc) · MOS (Mosaic Company (The)) · FMC (FMC Corporation)
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