Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
TYRA · Why this verdict
Why Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A put/call ratio of 88.0 and implied volatility of 207% are among the highest in the entire universe, indicating that the options market is pricing an extreme probability of a large binary move in either direction. Options | Implied volatility falls below 100% within 12 months following a clinical data release that reduces the binary uncertainty, regardless of outcome direction. | →Stable |
| CounterThe extreme put/call ratio may partially reflect hedging by biotech arbitrageurs rather than pure bearish conviction, meaning the ratio could overstate the actual probability of a severe downside move. | ||
The company's investment thesis rests almost entirely on the oral dabogratinib program, a single asset concentration that means clinical success or failure will determine the majority of the stock's long-term value. Bear case | Dabogratinib advances to at least one pivotal trial or achieves a clinical milestone within 12 months that narrows uncertainty around the regulatory pathway. | →Stable |
| CounterSingle-asset concentration in biotechnology eliminates diversification benefit, and a clinical setback could cause the stock to decline more than 50% below the current price of $28.55. | ||
Institutional investors are actively accumulating shares, reflected in a holder change score of 10 out of 10, suggesting that sophisticated capital believes the risk-reward is favorable at current prices ahead of upcoming data. Insider breakdown | Institutional ownership percentage increases by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months as additional funds initiate or expand positions. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional accumulation in small biotechnology names can reverse quickly on disappointing interim data, and the $1.7 billion market cap means even modest institutional selling could pressure the stock significantly. | ||
Analysts set a consensus target of $44.89 against the current price of $28.55, implying 57% upside, supported by a sentiment score of 8.2 out of 10 and a news sentiment reading of +0.35 from 9 articles. Sentiment | Analyst consensus price target stays above $40 over the next 12 months as coverage firms maintain confidence in the clinical program. | →Stable |
| CounterWith earnings misses of -8.6% and -8.5% in the two most recent quarters, the company is burning cash faster than expected, which could force a dilutive equity raise that reduces per-share value. | ||
A put/call ratio of 88.0 and implied volatility of 207% are among the highest in the entire universe, indicating that the options market is pricing an extreme probability of a large binary move in either direction.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Implied volatility falls below 100% within 12 months following a clinical data release that reduces the binary uncertainty, regardless of outcome direction.
CounterThe extreme put/call ratio may partially reflect hedging by biotech arbitrageurs rather than pure bearish conviction, meaning the ratio could overstate the actual probability of a severe downside move.
The company's investment thesis rests almost entirely on the oral dabogratinib program, a single asset concentration that means clinical success or failure will determine the majority of the stock's long-term value.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Dabogratinib advances to at least one pivotal trial or achieves a clinical milestone within 12 months that narrows uncertainty around the regulatory pathway.
CounterSingle-asset concentration in biotechnology eliminates diversification benefit, and a clinical setback could cause the stock to decline more than 50% below the current price of $28.55.
Institutional investors are actively accumulating shares, reflected in a holder change score of 10 out of 10, suggesting that sophisticated capital believes the risk-reward is favorable at current prices ahead of upcoming data.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional ownership percentage increases by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months as additional funds initiate or expand positions.
CounterInstitutional accumulation in small biotechnology names can reverse quickly on disappointing interim data, and the $1.7 billion market cap means even modest institutional selling could pressure the stock significantly.
Analysts set a consensus target of $44.89 against the current price of $28.55, implying 57% upside, supported by a sentiment score of 8.2 out of 10 and a news sentiment reading of +0.35 from 9 articles.
→StableSentiment
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target stays above $40 over the next 12 months as coverage firms maintain confidence in the clinical program.
CounterWith earnings misses of -8.6% and -8.5% in the two most recent quarters, the company is burning cash faster than expected, which could force a dilutive equity raise that reduces per-share value.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tyra Biosciences is a cash-burning clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on oral dabogratinib with 57% analyst upside and institutional accumulation, but a quality score of 1.2 out of 10, a put/call ratio of 88, and an implied volatility of 207% reflect extreme uncertainty around the binary clinical outcome.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 68%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.4 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 31%
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.6 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.10
Upside
+46.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, and Technical at 3.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Oral Dabogratinib Pipeline Concentration
Trip ifPrice drops below $20, more than 30% below the current $28.55, following a negative clinical update for the dabogratinib program.
- P2Institutional Accumulation Signal
Trip ifInstitutional holder change score falls below 5.0, suggesting net institutional selling has replaced the current accumulation trend.
- P3Analyst Upside 57 Pct
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $30, less than 5% above the current price of $28.55, indicating broad analyst capitulation on the upside case.
- P4Extreme Options Market Hedging
Trip ifImplied volatility rises above 250%, more than 20% above the already-extreme 207% level, signaling that market makers are pricing even higher binary risk ahead of a data event.