Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
TWI · Why this verdict
Why Titan International, Inc. (DE) (TWI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Titan International is down 60% from its high with 82.8% upside to the analyst target and a strong earnings beat record, but revenue is declining, quality is weak and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend below the $400M market-cap floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $8.50 is 82.8% above the $4.65 price, with a reward-to-risk of 5.53 against 15.0% downside, and analyst upside of 115% before the haircut. Analyst target | Price should move toward $8.50 if earnings keep beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and after a 60% drawdown the target may not reflect the revenue decline. | ||
Momentum is 2.9/10 with RSI at 15, a death cross, price below a 200-day average falling 2.7% over 30 days and a volume surge of 2.6x on the selloff. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 30 and price should hold above the $4.47 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and the put/call ratio of 7.00 signals heavy bearish positioning. | ||
EPS beat estimates in the latest two reports, including $0.10 versus -$0.04 expected in July 2026 and -$0.03 versus -$0.05 in October 2026. Last 4 quarters | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates in the next two reports. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats are against low or negative estimates, and the April 2026 report is recorded with no actual result. | ||
Revenue is declining 6% YoY and quality is 1.8/10 with no competitive moat and free cash flow at -2% of revenue. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and free cash flow should move above 0%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFarm and heavy equipment demand is cyclical, so the decline could be near a trough, but there is no moat to protect margins. | ||
Market cap of $300M is below the $400M minimum, leaving the stock outside the investable universe with limited institutional reach. Bear case | Market cap should climb above $400M as the price recovers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA small, heavily shorted stock with 64% implied volatility can stay depressed for long periods. | ||
The analyst target of $8.50 is 82.8% above the $4.65 price, with a reward-to-risk of 5.53 against 15.0% downside, and analyst upside of 115% before the haircut.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward $8.50 if earnings keep beating estimates.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and after a 60% drawdown the target may not reflect the revenue decline.
Momentum is 2.9/10 with RSI at 15, a death cross, price below a 200-day average falling 2.7% over 30 days and a volume surge of 2.6x on the selloff.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 30 and price should hold above the $4.47 stop level.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and the put/call ratio of 7.00 signals heavy bearish positioning.
EPS beat estimates in the latest two reports, including $0.10 versus -$0.04 expected in July 2026 and -$0.03 versus -$0.05 in October 2026.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates in the next two reports.
CounterBeats are against low or negative estimates, and the April 2026 report is recorded with no actual result.
Revenue is declining 6% YoY and quality is 1.8/10 with no competitive moat and free cash flow at -2% of revenue.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and free cash flow should move above 0%.
CounterFarm and heavy equipment demand is cyclical, so the decline could be near a trough, but there is no moat to protect margins.
Market cap of $300M is below the $400M minimum, leaving the stock outside the investable universe with limited institutional reach.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Market cap should climb above $400M as the price recovers.
CounterA small, heavily shorted stock with 64% implied volatility can stay depressed for long periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 83%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $321M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:113d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.92
Upside
+55.3%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -57% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.92.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Quality at 1.8, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Large Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target is cut below $6.00 from the current $8.50.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Oversold
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $4.47 stop level.
- P3Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Declining Revenue Weak Quality
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 12% YoY.
- P5Small Cap Below Universe Floor
Trip ifMarket cap stays below $250M for 2 consecutive quarters.