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TSLXSixth Street Specialty Lending,Hold5.5·$18.43+0.63%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a high-quality business development company with strong 25% margins, a 121% free cash flow conversion rate, and a 1,024% dividend coverage ratio, but a confirmed death cross, declining revenue of -20%, and three simultaneously failed quality gates limit the near-term entry appeal despite the attractive underlying fundamentals.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Execution Beat StreakStable
  • Death Cross Revenue Decline HeadwindDeteriorating
  • High Quality Cash ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, (TSLX) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC managed by an affiliate of Sixth Street Partners that generates income by originating direct loans primarily to U.S.-domiciled middle-market companies with annual EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. Revenue comes primarily from... Read more

$18.43-6.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#124 of 236 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.48%
IncomeYield9.23%(5y avg 6.82%)Payout201.06%at-risk
Stop $17.75Target $18.87(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$19.77+7.3%11 analysts
$18.87our TP
$18.43price
$19.77mean
$18
$23

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.5
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn21.8%
ROE5.6%
Rev Growth-14.9%
Beta0.63
Dividend9.23%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.39bearish
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$10-45.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWloan_portfolioInternet Services18%
    10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was Internet Services, which represented...18.3% of the total portfolio based on fair value.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.7
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.2
Quality Rank
3.2
Value Rank
4.7
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.98Resistance $19.26

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside-6.7%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.7% upside)
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $18.87 (+2.4%), stop $17.75 (−3.8%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.87 (-6.7% upside). Target $18.87 (+2.4%), stop $17.75 (−3.8%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $17.75.

What are the risks of investing in TSLX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is TSLX overvalued or undervalued?

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TSLX?

18 analysts cover TSLX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Sixth Street Specialty Lending, do?Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC managed by an affiliate of Sixth Street Partners that generates income by...

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC managed by an affiliate of Sixth Street Partners that generates income by originating direct loans primarily to U.S.-domiciled middle-market companies with annual EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. Revenue comes primarily from interest income on senior secured loans. As of December 31, 2025, the total investment portfolio was $3,347.3 million at fair value across 143 portfolio companies in 19 industries.

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