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Sixth Street Specialty Lending, (TSLX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC originating primarily senior secured loans to US middle-market companies with EBITDA of $10M–$250M. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio had $3.35 billion fair value across 143 companies; first-lien debt represented 89% of investments... Read more

$17.58+10.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#34 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.72%
IncomeYield9.44%(5y avg 6.85%)Payout173.04%at-risk
Stop $16.75Target $19.48(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$20.11+14.4%11 analysts
$19.48our TP
$17.58price
$20.11mean
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Sixth Street Specialty Lending,

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE6.8%
Rev Growth-19.7%
Beta0.69
Dividend9.44%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.89bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioInternet Services18%
    10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was Internet Services, which represented, as a percentage of our portfolio, 18.3% of the total portfolio based on fair value.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joshua Easterly, Chairman of the Board and Co-CIO of Adviser, announced he will not seek re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting (May 21, 2026) and will retire from Sixth Street Partners June 30, 2026. Board intends to appoint a successor Chairman on or about the Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
4.3
Value Rank
5.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.65%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.27Resistance $19.88

Price Targets

$17
$19
A.Upside+10.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $19.48 (+10.8%), stop $16.75 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.48 (+10.8% upside). Target $19.48 (+10.8%), stop $16.75 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $16.75.

What are the risks of investing in TSLX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is TSLX overvalued or undervalued?

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TSLX?

18 analysts cover TSLX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Sixth Street Specialty Lending, do?Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC originating primarily senior secured loans to US middle-market companies with...

Sixth Street Specialty Lending is a BDC originating primarily senior secured loans to US middle-market companies with EBITDA of $10M–$250M. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio had $3.35 billion fair value across 143 companies; first-lien debt represented 89% of investments and the largest single investment was 2.4% of the portfolio. Revenue is primarily interest income; Internet Services was the largest sector at 18.3% of fair value.

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