Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 7.2 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.97
TS · Why this verdict
Why Tenaris (TS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tenaris has beaten analyst EPS estimates in every quarter of the last year — 4 for 4 — with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, including a 22.6% beat in the most recent quarter at $1.07 versus $0.87 estimate, indicating durable operational execution in oil country tubular goods manufacturing. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains at 100% for the next 2 consecutive quarters with average surprise staying above 8%, confirming that Tenaris's operational efficiency and pricing power are structural advantages rather than cyclical tailwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge beat margins in oil field services suggest analysts consistently underestimate Tenaris's earnings power; once analyst models are recalibrated to actual performance levels, future beats will be smaller and could turn into misses as the model catches up. | ||
Tenaris earns best-in-class margins among peer companies and ranks among the top tier in quality scoring at 6.2 out of 10, with a Piotroski score of 8/9 and 16% net margins — reflecting a premium manufacturing position in oilfield tubular products that supports above-average returns through the cycle. Peer-rank breakdown | Net margins remain above 13% and the peer rank quality score stays in the top two-thirds among comparable companies over the next four quarters, sustaining the competitive quality advantage. | →Stable |
| CounterSteel tubular margins are highly cyclical and dependent on drilling activity; a sustained decline in oil and gas capital expenditure would compress margins regardless of Tenaris's relative competitive position among peers. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates strong financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, placing Tenaris in the financially robust category and reducing the risk of balance sheet deterioration even through a cyclical trough. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 7/9 or above over the next two annual assessments, maintaining the strong financial health designation even if commodity-linked revenues moderate. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski framework is backward-looking; in a cyclical commodity manufacturer, the score can deteriorate rapidly in the first two quarters of a downcycle before the financial statements reflect the full extent of the downturn. | ||
With the current price at $61.65 already above the analyst consensus implied target — reflected in -10% analyst upside — Tenaris has run past the fundamental value that professional analysts currently assign to the business, requiring new positive developments to justify further appreciation. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets rise at least 12% above the current price within 12 months, driven by upward estimate revisions following continued strong earnings beats that force models higher. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in cyclical oil field services names frequently lag price in up-cycles; the current above-target pricing may simply reflect the market pricing in a continued strong oil services demand environment that analysts will validate in subsequent revisions. | ||
Tenaris has beaten analyst EPS estimates in every quarter of the last year — 4 for 4 — with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, including a 22.6% beat in the most recent quarter at $1.07 versus $0.87 estimate, indicating durable operational execution in oil country tubular goods manufacturing.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains at 100% for the next 2 consecutive quarters with average surprise staying above 8%, confirming that Tenaris's operational efficiency and pricing power are structural advantages rather than cyclical tailwinds.
CounterLarge beat margins in oil field services suggest analysts consistently underestimate Tenaris's earnings power; once analyst models are recalibrated to actual performance levels, future beats will be smaller and could turn into misses as the model catches up.
Tenaris earns best-in-class margins among peer companies and ranks among the top tier in quality scoring at 6.2 out of 10, with a Piotroski score of 8/9 and 16% net margins — reflecting a premium manufacturing position in oilfield tubular products that supports above-average returns through the cycle.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 13% and the peer rank quality score stays in the top two-thirds among comparable companies over the next four quarters, sustaining the competitive quality advantage.
CounterSteel tubular margins are highly cyclical and dependent on drilling activity; a sustained decline in oil and gas capital expenditure would compress margins regardless of Tenaris's relative competitive position among peers.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates strong financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, placing Tenaris in the financially robust category and reducing the risk of balance sheet deterioration even through a cyclical trough.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 7/9 or above over the next two annual assessments, maintaining the strong financial health designation even if commodity-linked revenues moderate.
CounterThe Piotroski framework is backward-looking; in a cyclical commodity manufacturer, the score can deteriorate rapidly in the first two quarters of a downcycle before the financial statements reflect the full extent of the downturn.
With the current price at $61.65 already above the analyst consensus implied target — reflected in -10% analyst upside — Tenaris has run past the fundamental value that professional analysts currently assign to the business, requiring new positive developments to justify further appreciation.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets rise at least 12% above the current price within 12 months, driven by upward estimate revisions following continued strong earnings beats that force models higher.
CounterAnalyst targets in cyclical oil field services names frequently lag price in up-cycles; the current above-target pricing may simply reflect the market pricing in a continued strong oil services demand environment that analysts will validate in subsequent revisions.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tenaris has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, generates 16% net margins that rank best-in-class among peers, and carries a Piotroski score of 8/9 — a high-quality oil country tubular goods manufacturer that is currently priced beyond analyst consensus.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 9.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 14)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 329.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+1.8%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.4, Catalyst at 7.1, and Peer rank at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Growth at 4.3, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Strong Surprise
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak and suggesting the earnings uplift from the current oilfield services cycle is fading.
- P2Best In Class Margins Peer Rank
Trip ifNet margin falls below 10% for 2 or more consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful margin compression from cost increases or pricing pressure in the tubular goods market.
- P3High Financial Health Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9, indicating the financial health composite has deteriorated across multiple dimensions simultaneously.
- P4Valuation Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $55.00 — more than 10% below the current $61.65 price — indicating models are pricing in fundamental deterioration rather than converging up to market levels.