Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.35
TRU · Why this verdict
Why TransUnion (TRU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TransUnion has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, carries a 34% analyst upside with favorable risk/reward of 4.66x, and trades at a forward P/E of 12.1x with a PEG of 1.07 — making it the strongest fundamental setup in this group despite near-term technical weakness from a death cross pattern.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -4% over 30 days — classified as a confirmed downtrend — combined with the momentum gate failure at 4.3 out of 5.5 required creates a genuine near-term technical barrier to price appreciation even as fundamentals remain strong. Warnings | The 200-day moving average slope reverses from negative to flat or positive within 6 months, indicating that the downtrend is bottoming and technical conditions are aligning with the favorable fundamental picture. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume during the death cross period — as is the case here — often indicates institutional accumulation at lower prices, which historically precedes price recovery and can shorten the duration of the technical headwind. | ||
TransUnion has beaten EPS estimates in every quarter of the last year — 4 for 4 — with an average positive surprise of 6.16%, including beats of 9%, 5%, 4%, and 6% respectively, demonstrating highly consistent execution in financial data and analytics services. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains at 100% for at least 2 more consecutive quarters with average surprise staying above 4%, confirming that the execution quality is structural rather than reflecting easy comparables. | →Stable |
| CounterPerfect beat streaks often reflect conservative guidance management that allows beats without genuine acceleration; the underlying growth rate at a PEG of 1.07 is moderate, suggesting the beats are precision execution rather than outperformance. | ||
Analysts project 34% upside from current prices with a risk/reward ratio of 4.66x — meaning the potential gain to the analyst target is 4.66 times the defined downside risk — placing TransUnion among the most asymmetrically favorable setups in the financial data sector. Sentiment breakdown | Stock price appreciates at least 15% toward the $81.09 analyst target within 12 months as the death cross technical headwind resolves and fundamentals drive a re-rating. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 34% analyst upside combined with a confirmed death cross and momentum gates failing suggests that fundamental analysts and technical price action are pointing in opposite directions; technical selling pressure may delay or prevent the fundamental re-rating from occurring. | ||
At a forward P/E of 12.1x and PEG of 1.07, TransUnion's valuation is consistent with its earnings growth rate, meaning investors are not paying a premium for growth prospects that may not materialize — a more disciplined setup than growth-at-any-price peers in the financial data sector. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 15x as earnings growth is sustained and the technical overhang resolves, providing both multiple expansion and earnings growth as components of the return. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 1.07 implies fair value, not undervaluation; if earnings growth disappoints, there is no valuation buffer to cushion the downside, and the death cross suggests the market is already skeptical of the growth narrative. | ||
A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -4% over 30 days — classified as a confirmed downtrend — combined with the momentum gate failure at 4.3 out of 5.5 required creates a genuine near-term technical barrier to price appreciation even as fundamentals remain strong.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope reverses from negative to flat or positive within 6 months, indicating that the downtrend is bottoming and technical conditions are aligning with the favorable fundamental picture.
CounterRising on-balance volume during the death cross period — as is the case here — often indicates institutional accumulation at lower prices, which historically precedes price recovery and can shorten the duration of the technical headwind.
TransUnion has beaten EPS estimates in every quarter of the last year — 4 for 4 — with an average positive surprise of 6.16%, including beats of 9%, 5%, 4%, and 6% respectively, demonstrating highly consistent execution in financial data and analytics services.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains at 100% for at least 2 more consecutive quarters with average surprise staying above 4%, confirming that the execution quality is structural rather than reflecting easy comparables.
CounterPerfect beat streaks often reflect conservative guidance management that allows beats without genuine acceleration; the underlying growth rate at a PEG of 1.07 is moderate, suggesting the beats are precision execution rather than outperformance.
Analysts project 34% upside from current prices with a risk/reward ratio of 4.66x — meaning the potential gain to the analyst target is 4.66 times the defined downside risk — placing TransUnion among the most asymmetrically favorable setups in the financial data sector.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price appreciates at least 15% toward the $81.09 analyst target within 12 months as the death cross technical headwind resolves and fundamentals drive a re-rating.
CounterA 34% analyst upside combined with a confirmed death cross and momentum gates failing suggests that fundamental analysts and technical price action are pointing in opposite directions; technical selling pressure may delay or prevent the fundamental re-rating from occurring.
At a forward P/E of 12.1x and PEG of 1.07, TransUnion's valuation is consistent with its earnings growth rate, meaning investors are not paying a premium for growth prospects that may not materialize — a more disciplined setup than growth-at-any-price peers in the financial data sector.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 15x as earnings growth is sustained and the technical overhang resolves, providing both multiple expansion and earnings growth as components of the return.
CounterA PEG of 1.07 implies fair value, not undervaluation; if earnings growth disappoints, there is no valuation buffer to cushion the downside, and the death cross suggests the market is already skeptical of the growth narrative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 8.4 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,710,541 (0.023% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.97
Upside
+5.2%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.53>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.97 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Quality at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Peer rank at 4.5, and Technical at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak and signaling execution deterioration.
- P2Analyst Upside Favorable Risk Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $72.00 — less than 7% above the current $67.31 price — indicating the fundamental upside case is being marked down toward current market pricing.
- P3Valuation Growth Combination
Trip ifForward P/E multiple contracts below 10x without a corresponding earnings reduction, indicating multiple compression driven by deteriorating sentiment rather than fundamental weakness.
- P4Death Cross Technical Headwind
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains negative at more than -3% per 30 days for 6 or more consecutive months, indicating the confirmed downtrend is deepening rather than bottoming.