Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.10
TRU · Why this verdict
Why TransUnion (TRU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TransUnion is a high-quality data and credit business (Piotroski 8/9, 16% margins) with breakout momentum, but only 5.7% upside to the analyst target, a forward P/E of 14.3x and steady insider selling limit the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TransUnion shows strong margins of 16% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, giving it a quality score of 7.1 with a moat score of 6.9. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 13% and the Piotroski score at 7 or higher over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe quality peer rank is only 1.8/10 and leverage is meaningful at a debt/equity of 1.1, which cost -0.5 in the score. | ||
Earnings growth scores 10/10 and revenue growth 5.5/10, with a breakout setup of a golden cross, price above all moving averages and RSI 67. Momentum breakdown | Earnings should keep growing faster than revenue, and price should hold above the $71.41 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling (distribution) and the 200-day average slope is flat, so the breakout may lack buying support. | ||
The analyst target of $81.17 is only 5.7% above the $76.79 price, against 15.0% downside, giving a reward-to-risk of 0.38. Bear case | Analyst targets should rise above $90 or price should pull back for a better entry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalysts have positive ratings (7.5/10), so targets could be raised if growth continues. | ||
A forward P/E of 14.3x and a PEG of 1.10 make TransUnion fairly valued, with the value peer rank at 9.1/10 on P/E. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 17x as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG above 1.0 means growth is already priced in, leaving less room for multiple expansion. | ||
Insiders sold $3,135,795 across 11 sales in 90 days (0.021% of market cap) with no buys, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.77. Insider | Net insider selling should stay below 0.05% of market cap and the put/call ratio should drop below 1.2. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe selling is small relative to market cap and institutions are accumulating, so it may be routine. | ||
TransUnion shows strong margins of 16% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, giving it a quality score of 7.1 with a moat score of 6.9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 13% and the Piotroski score at 7 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThe quality peer rank is only 1.8/10 and leverage is meaningful at a debt/equity of 1.1, which cost -0.5 in the score.
Earnings growth scores 10/10 and revenue growth 5.5/10, with a breakout setup of a golden cross, price above all moving averages and RSI 67.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should keep growing faster than revenue, and price should hold above the $71.41 stop.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling (distribution) and the 200-day average slope is flat, so the breakout may lack buying support.
The analyst target of $81.17 is only 5.7% above the $76.79 price, against 15.0% downside, giving a reward-to-risk of 0.38.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise above $90 or price should pull back for a better entry.
CounterAnalysts have positive ratings (7.5/10), so targets could be raised if growth continues.
A forward P/E of 14.3x and a PEG of 1.10 make TransUnion fairly valued, with the value peer rank at 9.1/10 on P/E.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 17x as earnings grow.
CounterA PEG above 1.0 means growth is already priced in, leaving less room for multiple expansion.
Insiders sold $3,135,795 across 11 sales in 90 days (0.021% of market cap) with no buys, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.77.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should stay below 0.05% of market cap and the put/call ratio should drop below 1.2.
CounterThe selling is small relative to market cap and institutions are accumulating, so it may be routine.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 7.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,979,873 (0.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.2 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $48
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+3.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.56>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.8; weakest: Peer rank at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Momentum at 7.2, and Quality at 7.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Strong Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 12% from the current 16%.
- P2Earnings Growth Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $71.41 stop level.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice rises to more than 10% above the $81.17 analyst target.
- P4Fair Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 19x from the current 14.3x.
- P5Insider Selling Options Hedging
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap over 90 days.