Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
- ▸Attractively valued
TRMK · Why this verdict
Why Trustmark (TRMK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Trustmark Corporation has delivered three earnings beats in the last four quarters with strong momentum indicators including a golden cross and rising volume accumulation, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with negative asymmetry, limiting near-term upside relative to downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Supervisory oversight by both FRBA and MDBCF represents a dual regulatory burden that is explicitly cited as a concentration risk, which could constrain Trustmark's flexibility to pursue acquisitions, capital returns, or new business lines. Bear case | No new formal regulatory actions are announced and the bank maintains its current capital ratios above 10% tier-1 over the next 12 months, suggesting the dual oversight is routine rather than restrictive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDual regulatory supervision is common among community banks and does not inherently indicate elevated enforcement risk; the market may be over-pricing this concentration concern. | ||
Trustmark has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.35%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next four quarters with average surprise staying above 4%, sustaining the recent track record of execution. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks face persistent net interest margin compression from rate normalization; the beat streak could reverse quickly if deposit costs rise faster than loan repricing allows. | ||
A golden cross pattern with RSI at 55 and rising on-balance volume confirms that institutional buying pressure has been building, placing Trustmark in a technical breakout setup supported by volume accumulation above all major moving averages. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 9 months, with on-balance volume continuing its upward trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt only 2.5% below its 52-week high and already past the analyst price target, the breakout may be exhausted, making further gains dependent on a re-rating that is not currently supported by analyst consensus. | ||
With the stock trading above the analyst consensus price target — reflected in a negative upside of -8.6% — the current price embeds expectations that exceed what professional analysts currently believe the business is worth. Warnings | Analyst price targets rise at least 10% above the current price of $45.17 within 12 months, providing renewed fundamental support for the current valuation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price action in strong momentum stocks; institutional accumulation reflected in rising on-balance volume may indicate the market is ahead of published analyst models. | ||
Supervisory oversight by both FRBA and MDBCF represents a dual regulatory burden that is explicitly cited as a concentration risk, which could constrain Trustmark's flexibility to pursue acquisitions, capital returns, or new business lines.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No new formal regulatory actions are announced and the bank maintains its current capital ratios above 10% tier-1 over the next 12 months, suggesting the dual oversight is routine rather than restrictive.
CounterDual regulatory supervision is common among community banks and does not inherently indicate elevated enforcement risk; the market may be over-pricing this concentration concern.
Trustmark has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.35%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next four quarters with average surprise staying above 4%, sustaining the recent track record of execution.
CounterRegional banks face persistent net interest margin compression from rate normalization; the beat streak could reverse quickly if deposit costs rise faster than loan repricing allows.
A golden cross pattern with RSI at 55 and rising on-balance volume confirms that institutional buying pressure has been building, placing Trustmark in a technical breakout setup supported by volume accumulation above all major moving averages.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 9 months, with on-balance volume continuing its upward trend.
CounterAt only 2.5% below its 52-week high and already past the analyst price target, the breakout may be exhausted, making further gains dependent on a re-rating that is not currently supported by analyst consensus.
With the stock trading above the analyst consensus price target — reflected in a negative upside of -8.6% — the current price embeds expectations that exceed what professional analysts currently believe the business is worth.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise at least 10% above the current price of $45.17 within 12 months, providing renewed fundamental support for the current valuation.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price action in strong momentum stocks; institutional accumulation reflected in rising on-balance volume may indicate the market is ahead of published analyst models.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 8.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.17
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:72d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.87
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.3, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Peer rank at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Quality
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the recent beat streak and signaling deteriorating earnings execution.
- P2Price Momentum Breakout
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 consecutive days, breaking the breakout setup.
- P3Regulatory Concentration Risk
Trip ifThe share price drops below $38, more than 15% below the current $45.17, following a formal regulatory enforcement action against the bank.
- P4Valuation Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $40.00, signaling that professional models are marking down intrinsic value rather than catching up to the current price.