Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 5.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.47
TRMB · Why this verdict
Why Trimble (TRMB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Trimble beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.1%, backed by a wide economic moat score of 7.9 out of 10 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating that the company's competitive advantages are consistently translating to earnings outperformance. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with an average positive surprise above 6%. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak in an industrial technology company coinciding with a stock price declining to near 52-week lows may indicate that the earnings beats are not translating to business momentum visible to investors, or that estimates have been set artificially low after a period of downward revision. | ||
At a 47.9% implied upside from current price to analyst targets, with an RSI of 28 indicating near-capitulation selling and the stock at the bottom 1.5% of its 52-week range, Trimble may represent a significant overreaction to near-term technical pressure relative to its fundamental earnings power. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $65, more than 29% above the current $50.21, within 12 months as the RSI normalizes and the technical downtrend reverses. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks at 52-week lows with RSI of 28 in confirmed death-cross downtrends frequently continue lower before recovering; capitulation indicators have high false-positive rates when the selling is driven by institutional rebalancing rather than overreaction. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at -5.2% per 30 days, a death cross is confirmed, on-balance volume shows distribution, and the setup is characterized as a falling knife — collectively indicating that near-term price risk remains significantly to the downside despite the fundamental case for recovery. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope flattens to less than -2% per 30 days within 6 months, signaling early deceleration of the downtrend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe existence of capitulation-level RSI readings and volume spike data in the technical section suggests that extreme selling may itself become the reversal catalyst; maximum pessimism in a high-quality business historically precedes strong recoveries. | ||
The company relies on sole-source suppliers for certain materials identified in its risk disclosures, creating an operational vulnerability where supply disruption at a single vendor could interrupt production of key products without near-term alternatives. Bear case | No material supply disruption affects revenues by more than 5% in any of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSole-source supplier dependencies are common in precision instruments and are typically managed through long-term contracts, safety stock, and supplier development programs; the risk is real but has not historically materialized as a financial impact. | ||
Trimble beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.1%, backed by a wide economic moat score of 7.9 out of 10 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating that the company's competitive advantages are consistently translating to earnings outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with an average positive surprise above 6%.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak in an industrial technology company coinciding with a stock price declining to near 52-week lows may indicate that the earnings beats are not translating to business momentum visible to investors, or that estimates have been set artificially low after a period of downward revision.
At a 47.9% implied upside from current price to analyst targets, with an RSI of 28 indicating near-capitulation selling and the stock at the bottom 1.5% of its 52-week range, Trimble may represent a significant overreaction to near-term technical pressure relative to its fundamental earnings power.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $65, more than 29% above the current $50.21, within 12 months as the RSI normalizes and the technical downtrend reverses.
CounterStocks at 52-week lows with RSI of 28 in confirmed death-cross downtrends frequently continue lower before recovering; capitulation indicators have high false-positive rates when the selling is driven by institutional rebalancing rather than overreaction.
The 200-day moving average is declining at -5.2% per 30 days, a death cross is confirmed, on-balance volume shows distribution, and the setup is characterized as a falling knife — collectively indicating that near-term price risk remains significantly to the downside despite the fundamental case for recovery.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope flattens to less than -2% per 30 days within 6 months, signaling early deceleration of the downtrend.
CounterThe existence of capitulation-level RSI readings and volume spike data in the technical section suggests that extreme selling may itself become the reversal catalyst; maximum pessimism in a high-quality business historically precedes strong recoveries.
The company relies on sole-source suppliers for certain materials identified in its risk disclosures, creating an operational vulnerability where supply disruption at a single vendor could interrupt production of key products without near-term alternatives.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No material supply disruption affects revenues by more than 5% in any of the next 4 quarters.
CounterSole-source supplier dependencies are common in precision instruments and are typically managed through long-term contracts, safety stock, and supplier development programs; the risk is real but has not historically materialized as a financial impact.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Trimble has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging 10.1% positive surprises and analysts see 48% upside potential from the current price of $50.21 to approximately $74. The stock is in a deep technical downtrend — RSI of 28, death cross, and a 200-day moving average declining at -5.2%/30 days — creating one of the wider divergences between analyst fundamental valuation and current market price in the technology sector.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.3 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 22 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 61%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,622,792 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.14
Upside
+40.0%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.38>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Catalyst at 6.9, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Peer rank at 3.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, signaling the beat streak has broken down concurrent with the technical weakness.
- P2Large Analyst Upside Capitulation Setup
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price targets are revised below $60, more than 19% below current targets, indicating fundamental concerns are driving model resets.
- P3Technical Downtrend Severity
Trip if200-day moving average slope accelerates beyond -8% per 30 days, indicating deteriorating rather than stabilizing technical conditions.
- P4Sole Source Supplier Concentration
Trip ifRevenue impact from a supply disruption exceeds 5% of quarterly revenues, or a sole-source supplier announces force majeure or capacity reduction affecting more than 1 major product line.