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TRCTejon Ranch CoSell5.4·$16.40-0.06%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tejon Ranch shows a strong Piotroski F-Score and solid growth, but rich valuation, weak quality composite, and an earnings-quality red flag on cash conversion argue for caution despite favorable momentum.

Thesis pillars

  • Rich Forward ValuationDeteriorating
  • Earnings Quality Red FlagImproving
  • Strong Piotroski FundamentalsImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.40: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum.

We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20 million-square-foot commercial and industrial development strategically located along Interstate 5 at the gateway between the Los Angeles Basin and California's... Read more

$16.40+36.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 18 Conglomerates
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-2.26%
Stop $15.80Target $22.31(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.2:1
Analyst target$26.25+60.1%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.40: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-14

Recent Developments — Tejon Ranch Co

Generated 2026-08-14T15:42:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)74.6
P/E (Fwd)149.2
Mkt Cap$443M
EV/EBITDA88.6
Profit Mgn10.6%
ROE1.2%
Rev Growth71.7%
Beta0.58
DividendNone
Rating analysts1

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV115%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Forward Pe
1.0
Pe
1.3
Ps
5.0
Forward P/E: 149.2xExpensive valuation

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.4
Operating Margin
1.0
Net Margin
5.3
Moat
6.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -166% FCF/NI

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.8
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 7.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
21 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.29Resistance $18.28

Price Targets

$16
$22
A.Upside+36.1%
A.R:R7.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.40: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.80. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.31 (+36.1% upside). Prior stop was $15.80. Stop-loss: $15.80.

What are the risks of investing in TRC?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is TRC overvalued or undervalued?

Tejon Ranch Co trades at a P/E of 74.6 (forward 149.2). TrendMatrix value score: 1.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does Tejon Ranch Co do?We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20...

We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20 million-square-foot commercial and industrial development strategically located along Interstate 5 at the gateway between the Los Angeles Basin and California's Central Valley. TRCC is the primary driver of our revenue and earnings.

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