Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $2.42
- Estimate
- $2.33
- Surprise
- +4.0%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $273.4M
- Score today
- 6.5/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) beat the $2.33 estimate with adjusted EPS of $2.42 — a clear 4.0% upside surprise.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates TPL Buy (Wait) at 6.5/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +4.0% surprise compares with a -10.4% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
- Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.9× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%)
- Negative momentum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $287.65
- Entry target
- $272.13
- Price target
- $376.55
- Stop
- $253.08
- Upside to target
- +30.9%
- Reward-to-risk
- 3.4:1
The stock trades at 33.8× trailing but 3.9× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 19 — a level conventionally read as oversold; trading volume is running 3.4× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
TPL at TrendMatrix's latest read
Energy results are commodity-price arithmetic first; the operational beat or miss is read net of what the strip already told the market.
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&P
- Market cap
- $19.84B
- P/E (fwd)
- 3.9
- P/E (ttm)
- 33.8
- 52-week range
- $269.23–$547.20
- Off 52-week high
- 47.4%
- RSI (14)
- 19
- Volume vs avg
- 3.39×
- Score today
- 6.5/10