Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Reported EPS
- $2.23
- Estimate
- $2.18
- Surprise
- +2.1%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $246.1M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.3 → 6.2/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) beat the $2.18 estimate with diluted EPS of $2.23 — a modest 2.1% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.3/10) to Sell at 6.2/10 after the report — the engine's score fell despite the beat.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates TPL Hold at 6.2/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +2.1% surprise compares with a -13.6% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-04.
What supports the rating
- V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
- Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.11× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%)
- Thin upside margin: 4.1%
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $361.03
- Price target
- $375.70
- Stop
- $335.60
- Upside to target
- +4.1%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.6:1
The stock trades at 46.9× trailing but 5.0× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
TPL at TrendMatrix's latest read
Energy results are commodity-price arithmetic first; the operational beat or miss is read net of what the strip already told the market.
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&P
- Market cap
- $25.28B
- P/E (fwd)
- 5.0
- P/E (ttm)
- 46.9
- 52-week range
- $269.23–$547.20
- Off 52-week high
- 34.0%
- RSI (14)
- 50
- Volume vs avg
- 0.41×
- Score today
- 6.2/10