Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.3 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
TPC · Why this verdict
Why Tutor Perini (TPC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tutor Perini has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and trades at a PEG of 0.04 with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.7x, while analysts see 48% upside to approximately $96. However, 75% revenue concentration in government customers creates binary risk around contract awards and funding continuity, and a single quarter miss of -41% shows earnings volatility can be severe.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Approximately 75% of Tutor Perini's revenues come from government customers, meaning the business is highly dependent on public infrastructure spending budgets, appropriations continuity, and contract awards that can be delayed, cancelled, or reduced without notice. Bear case | Government-sourced revenue share declines toward 65% within 12 months as private sector projects expand, reducing single-source dependence. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGovernment contract concentration provides revenue predictability and access to large-scale infrastructure projects; the ongoing U.S. infrastructure investment cycle may actually increase the value of this government-facing positioning. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.04 and analyst price targets implying 48% upside suggest Tutor Perini may be significantly mispriced relative to its earnings growth, with the market discounting the government revenue concentration risk more than analysts believe is warranted. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $90, more than 17% above the current $76.55, within 12 months as contract backlog converts to revenue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtremely low PEG ratios in construction companies often reflect lumpy, project-based revenues where forward earnings estimates can be highly inaccurate; the -41% miss in Q4 2025 illustrates how quickly estimates can prove wrong. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 852% of net income is exceptionally high, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a pattern typical in construction companies where project cash is received before profit is recognized. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income over the next 2 annual cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high cash conversion multiples in construction can reflect changes in advance billings and working capital timing that reverse in subsequent periods; treating this as a durable quality metric overstates its reliability. | ||
Despite beating in three of the last four quarters overall, the single miss was -41.3%, highlighting that project-based earnings in construction are inherently lumpy and individual quarter results can deviate dramatically from estimates. Earnings | EPS surprise remains above -15% in each of the next 4 quarters, indicating better earnings visibility as project mix normalizes. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 3-for-4 beat streak including a major beat of 28.6% in Q3 2025 shows that strong quarters can significantly offset weak ones; the net-positive average beat of 1.9% may reflect an acceptable level of volatility for this sector. | ||
Approximately 75% of Tutor Perini's revenues come from government customers, meaning the business is highly dependent on public infrastructure spending budgets, appropriations continuity, and contract awards that can be delayed, cancelled, or reduced without notice.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Government-sourced revenue share declines toward 65% within 12 months as private sector projects expand, reducing single-source dependence.
CounterGovernment contract concentration provides revenue predictability and access to large-scale infrastructure projects; the ongoing U.S. infrastructure investment cycle may actually increase the value of this government-facing positioning.
A PEG ratio of 0.04 and analyst price targets implying 48% upside suggest Tutor Perini may be significantly mispriced relative to its earnings growth, with the market discounting the government revenue concentration risk more than analysts believe is warranted.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $90, more than 17% above the current $76.55, within 12 months as contract backlog converts to revenue.
CounterExtremely low PEG ratios in construction companies often reflect lumpy, project-based revenues where forward earnings estimates can be highly inaccurate; the -41% miss in Q4 2025 illustrates how quickly estimates can prove wrong.
Free cash flow conversion of 852% of net income is exceptionally high, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a pattern typical in construction companies where project cash is received before profit is recognized.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income over the next 2 annual cycles.
CounterExtremely high cash conversion multiples in construction can reflect changes in advance billings and working capital timing that reverse in subsequent periods; treating this as a durable quality metric overstates its reliability.
Despite beating in three of the last four quarters overall, the single miss was -41.3%, highlighting that project-based earnings in construction are inherently lumpy and individual quarter results can deviate dramatically from estimates.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above -15% in each of the next 4 quarters, indicating better earnings visibility as project mix normalizes.
CounterA 3-for-4 beat streak including a major beat of 28.6% in Q3 2025 shows that strong quarters can significantly offset weak ones; the net-positive average beat of 1.9% may reflect an acceptable level of volatility for this sector.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 852% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,061,300 (0.048% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.5%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| beta | 3.2 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.61
Upside
+9.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.05>1.3, MCap $4.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.9, and Momentum at 5.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Quality at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Government Customer Concentration
Trip ifGovernment customer revenues fall below 60% of total revenues due to contract cancellations or funding reductions, or a major contract is terminated representing more than 10% of annual revenues.
- P2Deep Value With Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price targets decline below $75, below the current price of $76.55, signaling broad-based downward revision.
- P3Strong Free Cash Conversion Signal
Trip ifFree cash flow drops below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Volatility With Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -30% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating persistent project execution problems.